Pisa–Palermo
Motivazione della nuova proposta
Pisa 85 tiri e 10 gol/5, Palermo 98 tiri e 11 gol/5 con 11,13 xG: tre gol possibili anche con gol di una sola squadra.
Altre opzioni valutate
Goal Sì · Multigol 2–4
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Joronen assente, Tramoni dubbio, Pisa senza xG completo nello stesso modello.. Controtesi: Pisa 10 GF/5 e 85 tiri, Palermo 11 GF/5, 11,13 xG e 98 tiri. Due produzioni offensive autonome, più solide del singolo esito.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Pisa
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Pisa last five 10 GF and8 GA, 85 attempts and59 conceded; 25 Oct Verona 20 attempts and four on goal from heavy possession. Latest match xG outside same seven game model and cannot be merged. Calabresi one-game ban, back three reshuffled.
Qualità avversari considerati
Pisa last five Verona, Cremonese, Vicenza, Mantova and Entella. Vicenza win 3-0 with nine SOT and 23 attempts, Verona 1-1 with 20 attempts; Entella 1-4 remains a defensive warning.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 10 | 8 | n.d. | n.d. | 85 | 59 | 29 | 13 | 39 | 23 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 7 | 2 | n.d. | n.d. | 57 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 27 | 16 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 15 | 10 | n.d. | n.d. | 138 | 99 | 52 | 25 | 52 | 41 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 6 | 7 | n.d. | n.d. | 69 | 49 | 27 | 16 | 24 | 22 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Hellas Verona | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Cremonese Calcio | Casa | 3 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | L.R. Vicenza | Trasferta | 3 | 0 |
| 20/09/2026 | Mantova 1911 | Trasferta | 2 | 2 |
| 11/09/2026 | Virtus Entella | Casa | 1 | 4 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Hellas Verona | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Cremonese Calcio | Casa | 3 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | L.R. Vicenza | Trasferta | 3 | 0 |
Palermo
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Palermo have 11GF and5GA in last five, 98 attempts for and71 allowed, 11.13xG and7.51xGA. Eight games 22 points vs model 13.39 expected, with xGA11.14 but only eight allowed. Their results have likely benefited from above-normal finishing and goal prevention.
Qualità avversari considerati
Palermo last five Carrarese, Mantova, Empoli, Padova and Avellino. Win 4-2 at Empoli with 35 shots improves form picture, but 2-0 Mantova required stronger finishing than 1.53xG.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 11 | 5 | 11,13 | 7,51 | 98 | 71 | 33 | 20 | 23 | 26 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 8 | 3 | 8,41 | 4,9 | 67 | 36 | 24 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 18 | 8 | 16,05 | 11,14 | 145 | 113 | 51 | 34 | 35 | 46 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 10 | 5 | 8,39 | 6,63 | 74 | 51 | 26 | 16 | 15 | 17 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Carrarese Calcio | Casa | 2 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Mantova 1911 | Trasferta | 2 | 0 |
| 10/10/2026 | Empoli FC | Trasferta | 4 | 2 |
| 19/09/2026 | Calcio Padova | Casa | 2 | 1 |
| 13/09/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Carrarese Calcio | Casa | 2 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Mantova 1911 | Trasferta | 2 | 0 |
| 10/10/2026 | Empoli FC | Trasferta | 4 | 2 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Pisa
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Confente | GK | Expected Pisa goalkeeper must organise a back three without suspended Calabresi. |
| 2 | Rosen Bozhinov | RCB | Right centreback in Calabresi's absence defends Johnsen inward movement. |
| 3 | Andrea Primasso | CB | Young central defender competes with Bani-targeting visitors Pohjanpalo on near-post service. |
| 4 | Samuele Angori | LCB | Normally left-sided wingback but moves to left centreback to fit Léris into the wide four. |
| 5 | Simone Zanon | RWB | Provides width on right and tackles the channel occupied by visiting Augello. |
| 6 | Giuseppe Leone | CM | Midfield organiser shields opponent number ten and has just one model xG fraction in past seven games. |
| 7 | Omar Correia | CM | Combative central ball carrier, 0.07 xG per ninety on earlier seven-game snapshot. |
| 8 | Mehdi Léris | LWB | Expected left wide player shifting Angori inward, 1.22 shots per appearance in nine multi-competition games. |
| 9 | Matteo Tramoni | AM | Injury doubt but expected to recover late; previous seven-game 0.06 xG per90; important creative support. |
| 10 | Stefano Moreo | AM | Attacking support linking to Pittarello, 0.21xG per90 in earlier four-match sample. |
| 11 | Filippo Pittarello | CF | Preferred central striker, with 0.17xG per90 in seven-game earlier model and a recent goal at Vicenza. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Arturo Calabresi suspended one league game
- Matteo Tramoni questionable fitness
Probabile formazione e reparto · Palermo
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mattia Perin | GK | Expected to start for Joronen while recovering from shoulder injury, goalkeeper replacement may affect high-ball decisions. |
| 2 | Niccolò Pierozzi | RB | Re-enters the right-back role from recovery and helps close Tramoni pocket. |
| 3 | Mattia Bani | RCB | Central defender returning after hand procedure, protects runs from Pittarello. |
| 4 | Pietro Ceccaroni | LCB | Left central defender against Moreo runs and delivery from Zanon. |
| 5 | Tommaso Augello | LB | Left-back faces attacking Tramoni and Zanon support; 0.00xG per90 despite one season goal. |
| 6 | Jacopo Segre | CM | Box-arriving midfielder, model 0.09xG per90 in eight Palermo matches. |
| 7 | Filippo Ranocchia | CM | Central midfielder with 0.04 xG per90 provides passes to Palumbo and covers Moreo halfspace. |
| 8 | Dominic Vavassori | RW | Dynamic right-side forward with 0.35xG per90, three goals from 2.38 model xG. |
| 9 | Antonio Palumbo | AM | Central playmaker with 0.13xG per90, may start instead of Hernani. |
| 10 | Dennis Johnsen | LW | Left inside-forward has 0.33xG per90 with five scored from 2.26xG, strong finishing conversion. |
| 11 | Joel Pohjanpalo | CF | Central striker with 0.24xG per90, expected to lead front line against Primasso. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Jesse Joronen shoulder injury
- Gabriel Strefezza previously unavailable
- Federico Barba previously unavailable
Profili individuali: numeri e ruolo nell’incontro
Dati calcistici per spiegare le dinamiche; nessuna giocata sui calciatori.
| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Tramoni | Pisa | xg_p90 0,06 (7 gare, per90) | Tramoni 0.06 xG per90 in first seven matches, but chance creation and passing matter more than shooter xG. |
| Stefano Moreo | Pisa | xg_p90 0,21 (4 gare, per90) | Moreo averaged 0.21 expected goals per90 in four source appearances, facing defensive cover from visitor midfield. |
| Filippo Pittarello | Pisa | xg_p90 0,17 (5 gare, per90) | Pittarello 0.17xG per90 across five model appearances, with attacking role against Bani. |
| Omar Correia | Pisa | xg_p90 0,07 (7 gare, per90) | Correia 0.07xG per90 in seven matches and provides passes beyond Palermo's holding midfield. |
| Tommaso Augello | Palermo | xg_p90 0 (8 gare, per90) | Augello near zero xG per90 in eight; left defensive position facing Tramoni. |
| Filippo Ranocchia | Palermo | xg_p90 0,04 (8 gare, per90) | Ranocchia model 0.04xG per90 as visitor central midfielder, supporting attacks from deep. |
| Dominic Vavassori | Palermo | xg_p90 0,35 (8 gare, per90) | Vavassori has 2.38xG in 605 minutes: 0.35xG per90, dangerous arriving from right. |
| Antonio Palumbo | Palermo | xg_p90 0,13 (5 gare, per90) | Palumbo 0.13xG per90 from midfield, source sample five appearances and possible bench. |
| Dennis Johnsen | Palermo | xg_p90 0,33 (8 gare, per90) | Johnsen 0.33xG per90 and five league goals, with finishing above 2.26 season model xG. |
| Joel Pohjanpalo | Palermo | xg_p90 0,24 (8 gare, per90) | Pohjanpalo 0.24xG per90, central finisher amid short rest after Carrarese. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Matteo Tramoni ↔ Tommaso Augello
Meccanismo
Tramoni's inward right-to-centre attacking drift intersects Augello's away left-back lane.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Separate player xG per90 0.06 and 0; not a measured tackle or man-marking duel rate.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Tramoni | xg_p90 | 0,06 per90 | 7 gare |
| Tommaso Augello | xg_p90 | 0 per90 | 8 gare |
2. Stefano Moreo ↔ Filippo Ranocchia
Meccanismo
Moreo's second-striker midfielder involvement meets Ranocchia holding area with a positional confrontation.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Separate player xG per90 0.21 and 0.04; not a measured tackle or man-marking duel rate.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Moreo | xg_p90 | 0,21 per90 | 4 gare |
| Filippo Ranocchia | xg_p90 | 0,04 per90 | 8 gare |
3. Filippo Pittarello ↔ Antonio Palumbo
Meccanismo
Pittarello and Palumbo influence the central passing/second-ball lane, not a direct individual defensive marking.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Separate player xG per90 0.17 and 0.13; not a measured tackle or man-marking duel rate.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filippo Pittarello | xg_p90 | 0,17 per90 | 5 gare |
| Antonio Palumbo | xg_p90 | 0,13 per90 | 5 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Both sides are active shooters: 85 Pisa and 98 Palermo attempts in last five; Palermo xG11.13 in five against7.51 xGA shows attack and exposure, and Pisa had 20 shots at Verona.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Pisa latest Verona xG lies outside provider same-model series; Palermo 22 points vs13.39xPts means standings likely overstate repeatable control, and Calabresi suspended.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
A Pisa lead forces Palermo wingbacks high and allows Tramoni/Moreo to attack channels behind Augello and Pierozzi.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Palermo have scored 11 in last five and Johnsen plus Pohjanpalo carry a comeback threat.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
Palermo first goal can free Johnsen and Vavassori to receive in transition while Pisa needs wide progress.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Pisa have high shot volume at home and can press Ranocchia through Leone and Correia.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
With both teams trying not to be exposed and Inzaghi's first place, the opening can be cautious despite shot potential.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Seven Palermo xG against actual five conceded recently and Pisa 20 attempts at Verona challenge any claim of a sterile game.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Pisa scored ten and conceded eight in last five, Palermo eleven scored and five conceded, with two sides capable of quick transitions.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Recent high scores at Empoli or Entella can distort sample; the actual probability distribution needs complete same-model Pisa xG.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Palermo are unbeaten with 22 points and high away scoring, but +8.61 xPts gap shows the standings exceed event-quality expectation.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Pisa Calabresi suspension changes the defence, and Palermo have four away games with 10 goals scored.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Pisa lost 1-4 to Entella and Palermo scored four away at Empoli, supporting an open tail.
Elementi contrari
Both were unique events and the current keeper/defence selection can change defensive shape.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Early tactical caution and Palermo first-place approach could keep attempts low quality.
Elementi contrari
Both sides averaged over fifteen shots last five and conceded thirteen goals combined.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Both sides have repeatable attempts and some defensive gaps, making middle-goal range plausible.
Elementi contrari
Injuries and fatigue can reduce attacking tempo or quick opening goal can exceed three.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Game-state chase with many shots and weak backline cover could create unusual total.
Elementi contrari
Without full consistent Pisa xG a five-goal result cannot be the central calibrated outcome.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol per tempo | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Sintesi tecnica F2 originale
Pisa last5 10GF8GA, 85 shots/59 allowed. Palermo last5 11GF5GA, 98 shots/71 allowed and 11.13xG/7.51xGA. Palermo 22 pts but 13.39 expected points from chances; Pisa missing latest game in same-model xG, Calabresi banned and Tramoni doubtful; Perin for Joronen likely.
Punti ancora incerti
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill last5 from a mixed model or assume zero."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill last5 from a mixed model or assume zero."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill last3 from a mixed model or assume zero."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill last3 from a mixed model or assume zero."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill season from a mixed model or assume zero."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill season from a mixed model or assume zero."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.venue.metrics.xg","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill venue from a mixed model or assume zero."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.venue.metrics.xga","reason":"Pisa Statz same-model xG has only seven league matches, missing 25-Oct Verona event; cannot fill venue from a mixed model or assume zero."}
Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Pisa seven only league games xG/xGA; Oct25 excluded, do not mix with another model 2026-10-27 10:12
- Palermo all eight Serie B xG and xGA events, last5 last3 away 2026-10-27 10:12
- Pisa seven older match-specific shots and opponent attempts 2026-10-27 10:12
- Palermo seven older match-specific shots and opponent attempts 2026-10-27 10:12
- Pisa first four Serie B game SOT snapshot; latest event from individual game centres 2026-10-27 10:12
- Palermo seven older SOT team-specific logs, Oct25 external centre 2026-10-27 10:12
- Pisa eight event corner logs, statistics only not pick 2026-10-27 10:12
- Palermo eight event corner logs, statistics only not pick 2026-10-27 10:12
- 25 October Verona 1 Pisa1, Pisa 20 shots four SOT eight corners 2026-10-27 10:12
- 25 October Palermo 2 Carrarese1, 19 shots seven on target five corners 2026-10-27 10:12
- 17 Oct Pisa 3 Cremonese1 with 14 shots five on target, seven corners 2026-10-27 10:12
- 10 Oct Vicenza0 Pisa3 with 23 Pisa shots nine on target 2026-10-27 10:12
- 20 September Pisa 2 Mantova2, five Pisa on-target from fourteen attempts 2026-10-27 10:12
- 26 October probable eleven for both sides, Bianco and Inzaghi, Tramoni return doubtful 2026-10-27 10:12
- Official Pisa announcement 26 October Calabresi banned one league game 2026-10-27 10:12
- Previous Palermo Joronen, Strefezza and Barba unavailable, Bani recovered from hand surgery 2026-10-27 10:12
- Pisa official 25 Oct full XI and Maras equaliser, lineup rotation 2026-10-27 10:12
- Palermo club official recovery October26 after 25 October match 2026-10-27 10:12