Padova–Sudtirol
Motivazione della nuova proposta
Padova 4 gol e Südtirol 6 nelle ultime cinque con volumi di tiro modesti; copre anche 2-1/1-2, ma non lo 0-0.
Altre opzioni valutate
Under 2,5 gol · No Goal
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Un gol iniziale su piazzato può aprire il match; assenze Padova alterano il volume, xG non omogenei.. Controtesi: Scelta eccezionale di mercato basso: Padova 4 GF e Südtirol 6 GF/5, ultime tre 2 e 1 gol; produzione rispettiva 56 e 51 tiri/5.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Padova
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Padova four scored and six allowed last five from 56 own shots and 97 conceded; a 1-0 victory at Avellino with one SOT is not sustainable attack evidence. Injuries leave wingback and striker rotations.
Qualità avversari considerati
Padova last five faced Avellino, Entella, Carrarese, Palermo and Ascoli; difficult opponents and low recent shooting output, including a misleading 1-0 at Avellino after 28 attempts conceded.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 4 | 6 | n.d. | n.d. | 56 | 97 | 12 | 30 | 24 | 33 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 2 | 4 | n.d. | n.d. | 25 | 55 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 18 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 7 | 10 | n.d. | n.d. | 86 | 143 | 23 | 46 | 37 | 46 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 3 | 5 | n.d. | n.d. | 35 | 61 | 8 | 19 | 13 | 21 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Trasferta | 1 | 0 |
| 17/10/2026 | Virtus Entella | Casa | 1 | 2 |
| 11/10/2026 | Carrarese Calcio | Casa | 0 | 2 |
| 19/09/2026 | Palermo FC | Trasferta | 1 | 2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Ascoli Calcio | Casa | 1 | 0 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Trasferta | 1 | 0 |
| 17/10/2026 | Virtus Entella | Casa | 1 | 2 |
| 11/10/2026 | Carrarese Calcio | Casa | 0 | 2 |
Sudtirol
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Südtirol six scored and six allowed last five from 51 own shots and 71 conceded; returns of Vasco Lopes and Veroli can change half-space entries, while red card in Juve Stabia game affected apparent defence.
Qualità avversari considerati
Südtirol last five faced Sampdoria, Juve Stabia, Ascoli, Arezzo and Modena, with extremes from 4-1 at Arezzo to 0-3 at Juve Stabia; game state matters.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 6 | 6 | n.d. | n.d. | 51 | 71 | 15 | 25 | 18 | 28 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 1 | 4 | n.d. | n.d. | 30 | 41 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 10 | 7 | n.d. | n.d. | 77 | 122 | 23 | 35 | 23 | 49 |
| Casa / trasferta (3 gare) | 5 | 5 | n.d. | n.d. | 25 | 58 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | UC Sampdoria | Casa | 1 | 1 |
| 18/10/2026 | Juve Stabia 1907 | Trasferta | 0 | 3 |
| 10/10/2026 | Ascoli Calcio | Casa | 0 | 0 |
| 20/09/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Trasferta | 4 | 1 |
| 12/09/2026 | Modena FC | Casa | 1 | 1 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | UC Sampdoria | Casa | 1 | 1 |
| 18/10/2026 | Juve Stabia 1907 | Trasferta | 0 | 3 |
| 10/10/2026 | Ascoli Calcio | Casa | 0 | 0 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Padova
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Sorrentino | GK | Pads the box in front of Lovato and distributes to both wingbacks; Avellino pressured him with seven SOT. |
| 2 | Alessandro Dellavalle | RCB | Right centreback screens Zeroli central-to-wide movement when Capelli advances. |
| 3 | Matteo Lovato | CB | Central marker against Okoro, expected defensive reference in a team facing high shot volume. |
| 4 | Christian Pastina | LCB | Expected return to left defence; protects the channel targeted by Vasco Lopes. |
| 5 | Alessandro Capelli | RWB | Right wingback supplies width against Davi and is a rotation option over Carissoni. |
| 6 | Emanuele Zuelli | CM | Scored at Avellino and times deep arrivals; season Fotmob about one shot per 90. |
| 7 | Marco Pompetti | DM | Holding playmaker chosen ahead of Giunti in latest local projection, must screen Vasco Lopes pockets. |
| 8 | Kevin Varas | CM | Carries into the channels beside Rispoli and Tronchin, a key internal support role. |
| 9 | Matteo Cocchi | LWB | Left wingback probes Molina on visiting right, with 2.2 shots per 90 per Fotmob's older sample. |
| 10 | Alessandro Seghetti | CF | Projected central runner near Stivanello, competing with Moro and Bortolussi for minutes. |
| 11 | Gabriele Artistico | CF | Expected partner to Seghetti, but the presence of Moro/Bortolussi makes XI uncertain. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Kevin Lasagna (injury)
- Luca Zanimacchia (injury)
- Gianluca Caprari (injury)
- Cristian Buonaiuto (unavailable)
- Antonio Barreca (unavailable)
Probabile formazione e reparto · Sudtirol
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Plizzari | GK | Goalkeeper anchors three central defenders while receiving pressure from two Padova forwards. |
| 2 | Riccardo Stivanello | RCB | Right-sided defender covers the segment where Seghetti attacks, 0.5 shots per 90 is only a role anchor. |
| 3 | Andrea Giorgini | CB | Central marker controlling Artistico's near-post runs and intercepting narrow passing lanes. |
| 4 | Davide Veroli | LCB | Projected to return at left centreback; supports Davi against Capelli and Zuelli movement. |
| 5 | Salvatore Molina | RWB | Right wingback meets Cocchi's advance and delivers overlaps, 0.3 shots per90. |
| 6 | Fabio Rispoli | CM | Middle-of-field screen versus Zuelli and Varas while providing passing support; 1.1 shots per90. |
| 7 | Simone Tronchin | CM | Second midfielder safeguards possessions under home press and protects team spacing. |
| 8 | Simone Davi | LWB | Left wingback contests Capelli and supports the second half-space attacker Zeroli. |
| 9 | Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes | AM | Back from suspension as the key right-side creative attacker, 2.8 attempts per90. |
| 10 | Kevin Zeroli | AM | Off-ball interior runs behind Varas potentially punish weak central protection. |
| 11 | Alvin Okoro | CF | Forward competition with Mixtur; Fotmob 1.8 attempts per90 prior to matchday. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
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| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Capelli | Padova | Tiri / 90 1,1 (6 gare, per90) | Capelli 1.1 attempts per90 in source Fotmob; provides high-wide home width. |
| Emanuele Zuelli | Padova | Tiri / 90 1 (8 gare, per90) | Zuelli 1.0 attempts per90 and latest goal as midfielder, but last goal was 1 of only 1 team SOT. |
| Matteo Cocchi | Padova | Tiri / 90 2,2 (7 gare, per90) | Cocchi 2.2 attempts per90 in historical season sample, outside-to-in wingback offensive threat. |
| Matteo Lovato | Padova | Tiri / 90 0,3 (7 gare, per90) | Lovato 0.3 shots per90, central defensive role, shooting rate is NOT tackle rate. |
| Riccardo Stivanello | Sudtirol | Tiri / 90 0,5 (8 gare, per90) | Stivanello 0.5 shots per90 but primarily central defender of Seghetti runs. |
| Salvatore Molina | Sudtirol | Tiri / 90 0,3 (10 gare, per90) | Molina 0.3 shots per90 as wingback, maintains covering lane versus Cocchi. |
| Fabio Rispoli | Sudtirol | Tiri / 90 1,1 (7 gare, per90) | Rispoli 1.1 shots per90 supporting midfield counter moves. |
| Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes | Sudtirol | Tiri / 90 2,8 (8 gare, per90) | Vasco Lopes 2.8 shots per90 upon return from suspension, selection confirmed only as probable. |
| Alvin Okoro | Sudtirol | Tiri / 90 1,8 (7 gare, per90) | Okoro 1.8 attempts per90 as central option, may be replaced by Mixtur. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Matteo Cocchi ↔ Salvatore Molina
Meccanismo
Cocchi attacks from Padova left versus Molina's Südtirol right wingback positioning.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Source-observed unrelated player shots per90 2.2 and 0.3, not a measured personal duel success/tackle metric.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Cocchi | shots_p90 | 2,2 per90 | 7 gare |
| Salvatore Molina | shots_p90 | 0,3 per90 | 10 gare |
2. Emanuele Zuelli ↔ Fabio Rispoli
Meccanismo
Zuelli arrives behind Padova centre while Rispoli covers and blocks interior passes.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Source-observed unrelated player shots per90 1 and 1.1, not a measured personal duel success/tackle metric.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuele Zuelli | shots_p90 | 1 per90 | 8 gare |
| Fabio Rispoli | shots_p90 | 1,1 per90 | 7 gare |
3. Matteo Lovato ↔ Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
Meccanismo
Lovato central cover meets Vasco Lopes' half-space diagonal receiving channel.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Source-observed unrelated player shots per90 0.3 and 2.8, not a measured personal duel success/tackle metric.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Lovato | shots_p90 | 0,3 per90 | 7 gare |
| Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes | shots_p90 | 2,8 per90 | 8 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Padova four scored and six conceded last five; Südtirol six and six. Both have modest recent shot counts, Padova much weaker in recent shot creation.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Padova managed a 1-0 at Avellino despite an extreme 8-28 shot deficit; recent outcomes alone do not support strong 1X confidence.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
Padova can defend deeper with five and use Cocchi/Capelli as exit routes after an early lead.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Possanzini wingbacks and Vasco Lopes between lines could regain field territory.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
Südtirol counterattacks through Vasco Lopes and Zeroli if Padova moves both wingbacks forward.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Calabro can bring on Moro or Bortolussi to add direct box contact.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
Low attacking production from recent Padova play and visiting caution make a long even phase plausible.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Südtirol 4-1 at Arezzo illustrates finishing spikes and can challenge a slow-state assumption.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Padova's 97 shots conceded last five and Sør dual wingback progression can create transition errors.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Südtirol made only 51 attempts recently and no complete comparable eight-game xG series exists.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Südtirol have thirteen points compared to Padova's ten, but their 0-3 Juve Stabia defeat exposed central vulnerabilities.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Padova home status does not compensate automatically for one shot on target in the last two games.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Padova 97 shots conceded in five raises possible multiple high-quality transitions.
Elementi contrari
Südtirol only 51 shots made in five and their manager may be conservative.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Both teams have modest creation recent; low-event scenario possible.
Elementi contrari
Padova and Südtirol each have conceded six over their last five.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Wide half-space pressure and counterattacking means two or three goals are plausible.
Elementi contrari
Homogeneous xG coverage incomplete and early goal can open wider paths.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Exceptional defending breakdowns seen at Arezzo and Juve Stabia show a tail risk.
Elementi contrari
Not enough consistent xG evidence to regard five as a central target.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol per tempo | Osservato in F2 | Over 1.5 reti primo tempo | 1 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Sintesi tecnica F2 originale
Padova last five 4 goals for 6 against and shot balance 56/97. Südtirol 6 for 6 against and shot balance 51/71. Padova last win over Avellino came on 8 shots to 28, one on target; Südtirol recent 4-1 win and 0-3 loss make naive goal trends unreliable.
Punti ancora incerti
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- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Padova only 7 source games, missing Oct24 Avellino. Full season xG from same model unavailable."}
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- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Südtirol only 6 source games, missing Oct18 and Oct24. Full last5 xG from same model unavailable."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Südtirol only 6 source games, missing Oct18 and Oct24. Full last5 xG from same model unavailable."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Südtirol only 6 source games, missing Oct18 and Oct24. Full last3 xG from same model unavailable."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Südtirol only 6 source games, missing Oct18 and Oct24. Full last3 xG from same model unavailable."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Südtirol only 6 source games, missing Oct18 and Oct24. Full season xG from same model unavailable."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Südtirol only 6 source games, missing Oct18 and Oct24. Full season xG from same model unavailable."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.venue.metrics.xg","reason":"Südtirol only 6 source games, missing Oct18 and Oct24. Full venue xG from same model unavailable."}
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Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Official 8 Padova fixtures and scores 2026-10-27 07:42
- Official 8 Südtirol fixtures and score orientation 2026-10-27 07:42
- Padova first seven 2026/27 shots for and against 2026-10-27 07:42
- Padova first seven shots on target 2026-10-27 07:42
- Eight Padova corner logs through Oct24 2026-10-27 07:42
- Seven Südtirol shot logs through Oct18 2026-10-27 07:42
- Partial Südtirol SOT with later match reports 2026-10-27 07:42
- Eight Südtirol corner match logs, source conflict Oct24 2026-10-27 07:42
- Same-model Padova xG only seven games; missing eighth 2026-10-27 07:42
- Same-model Südtirol xG only six games; missing seventh/eighth 2026-10-27 07:42
- Padova Oct24 1-0 away, 8 shots/1 SOT/2 corners; conceded 28/7/11 2026-10-27 07:42
- Südtirol Oct24 1-1 Samp, 8 shots/1 SOT; corner different from Statz 2026-10-27 07:42
- Südtirol 0-3 away, 6 shots/2 SOT versus22/9 2026-10-27 07:42
- Südtirol 0-0 Ascoli 16 shots 4 SOT 2026-10-27 07:42
- Südtirol wins 4-1 away, ten shots 5 SOT 2026-10-27 07:42
- Padova official 26-Oct named callups 2026-10-27 07:42
- Padova projected 3-5-2, specific rotation and unavailable players 2026-10-27 07:42
- Südtirol projected 3-4-2-1 and Vasco Lopes return 2026-10-27 07:42
- Padova Fotmob observed shots per 90 in season-indexed player list 2026-10-27 07:42
- Südtirol Fotmob observed shots per 90 in season-indexed player list 2026-10-27 07:42
- Padova Statz appearances to contextualise Fotmob sample 2026-10-27 07:42
- Südtirol Statz appearances to contextualise Fotmob sample 2026-10-27 07:42