Monza–Napoli
Motivazione della nuova proposta
Monza 11 gol segnati e 10 subiti in cinque; Napoli 9 segnati e 10,60 xG/5. Consente 3-0/0-3 oltre al 2-1.
Altre opzioni valutate
Goal Sì · Multigol 2–4
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Difensori Napoli fuori e Monza senza modello xG completo; una gara dominata dagli ospiti può escludere il gol Monza.. Controtesi: Monza 11 GF e 10 GS/5, Napoli 9 GF, 10,60 xG/5. Una pressione reciproca che consente Gol sì senza imporre vittoria azzurra.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Monza
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Monza 11 goals scored and 10 conceded in last five, 69 attempts and 77 conceded; two recent expected-goals match events are unavailable in the selected model.
Qualità avversari considerati
Monza faced Torino, Cagliari, Lazio, Sassuolo and Lecce with uneven opponent strength; 4-0 Cagliari is not a guarantee of the same productivity.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 11 | 10 | n.d. | n.d. | 69 | 77 | 32 | 30 | 25 | 26 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 7 | 6 | n.d. | n.d. | 35 | 50 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 17 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 15 | 18 | n.d. | n.d. | 107 | 109 | 45 | 43 | 34 | 38 |
| Casa / trasferta (3 gare) | 8 | 4 | n.d. | n.d. | 44 | 48 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 15 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2026 | Torino FC | Trasferta | 2 | 3 |
| 19/10/2026 | Cagliari Calcio | Casa | 4 | 0 |
| 11/10/2026 | SS Lazio | Trasferta | 1 | 3 |
| 18/09/2026 | US Sassuolo | Casa | 2 | 1 |
| 13/09/2026 | US Lecce | Trasferta | 2 | 3 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2026 | Torino FC | Trasferta | 2 | 3 |
| 19/10/2026 | Cagliari Calcio | Casa | 4 | 0 |
| 11/10/2026 | SS Lazio | Trasferta | 1 | 3 |
Napoli
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Napoli nine goals for four conceded, 90 shots made and 72 conceded in last five, 10.60 xG for and 5.75 xGA. Two defenders injured and Allegri suspended from touchline.
Qualità avversari considerati
Napoli faced Roma, Venezia, Frosinone, Fiorentina and Bologna in league, with an added Champions League schedule and unusual rotation needs.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 9 | 4 | 10,6 | 5,75 | 90 | 72 | 35 | 15 | 35 | 19 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 7 | 3 | 7,89 | 3,96 | 63 | 50 | 27 | 9 | 20 | 15 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 14 | 9 | 15,31 | 11,92 | 132 | 133 | 48 | 31 | 47 | 41 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 6 | 4 | 6,72 | 7,59 | 71 | 66 | 26 | 18 | 27 | 19 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | AS Roma Capitale | Casa | 3 | 3 |
| 17/10/2026 | Venezia FC | Trasferta | 1 | 0 |
| 10/10/2026 | Frosinone Calcio | Casa | 3 | 0 |
| 20/09/2026 | ACF Fiorentina | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 13/09/2026 | Bologna FC | Casa | 1 | 0 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | AS Roma Capitale | Casa | 3 | 3 |
| 17/10/2026 | Venezia FC | Trasferta | 1 | 0 |
| 10/10/2026 | Frosinone Calcio | Casa | 3 | 0 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Monza
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noel Tornqvist | GK | Projected GK in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 2 | Eddy Kouadio | RCB | Projected RCB in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 3 | Saba Goglichidze | CB | Projected CB in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 4 | Andrea Carboni | LCB | Projected LCB in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 5 | Samuele Birindelli | RWB | Projected RWB in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 6 | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | CM | Projected CM in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 7 | Michael Folorunsho | CM | Projected CM in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 8 | Ricardo Mangas | LWB | Projected LWB in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 9 | Dany Mota | AM | Projected AM in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 10 | Jay Robinson | AM | Projected AM in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 11 | Gustavo Varela | CF | Projected CF in the home scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Matteo Pessina unavailable
- Jan Ziolkowski unavailable
- Maye doubtful
Probabile formazione e reparto · Napoli
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanja Milinkovic-Savic | GK | Projected GK in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 2 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo | RB | Projected RB in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 3 | Amir Rrahmani | RCB | Projected RCB in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 4 | Rafa Marin | LCB | Projected LCB in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 5 | Mathias Olivera | LB | Projected LB in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 6 | Kevin De Bruyne | CM | Projected CM in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 7 | Stanislav Lobotka | DM | Projected DM in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 8 | Scott McTominay | CM | Projected CM in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 9 | Matteo Politano | RW | Projected RW in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 10 | Rasmus Hojlund | CF | Projected CF in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
| 11 | Noa Lang | LW | Projected LW in the away scheme, selection provisional; positioning and tactical duties depend on final staff decision. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Benoit Badiashile hamstring injury
- Leonardo Spinazzola muscular injury
- Alessandro Buongiorno doubtful
- David Neres unavailable
- Alisson Santos unavailable
- Costantino Favasuli unavailable
Profili individuali: numeri e ruolo nell’incontro
Dati calcistici per spiegare le dinamiche; nessuna giocata sui calciatori.
| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Carboni | Monza | Tiri / 90 0,68 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 0.68 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Samuele Birindelli | Monza | Tiri / 90 1,52 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 1.52 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Ricardo Mangas | Monza | Tiri / 90 0,73 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 0.73 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Gustavo Varela | Monza | Tiri / 90 2,42 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 2.42 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | Napoli | Tiri / 90 0,63 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 0.63 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Amir Rrahmani | Napoli | Tiri / 90 1,14 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 1.14 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Rafa Marin | Napoli | Tiri / 90 0,44 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 0.44 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Stanislav Lobotka | Napoli | Tiri / 90 0,74 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 0.74 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
| Rasmus Hojlund | Napoli | Tiri / 90 2,48 (8 gare, per90) | Player observed 2.48 shots per 90 in league, an offensive activity measure rather than a defensive tackle percentage. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Gustavo Varela ↔ Amir Rrahmani
Meccanismo
Varela's central runs meet Rrahmani's returning defensive coverage.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Independent rate 2.42 and 1.14 attempts per90, not direct duel success.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | shots_p90 | 2,42 per90 | 8 gare |
| Amir Rrahmani | shots_p90 | 1,14 per90 | 8 gare |
2. Ricardo Mangas ↔ Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Meccanismo
Mangas left wingback overlaps against Di Lorenzo on visiting right.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Independent rate 0.73 and 0.63 attempts per90, not direct duel success.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Mangas | shots_p90 | 0,73 per90 | 8 gare |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | shots_p90 | 0,63 per90 | 8 gare |
3. Andrea Carboni ↔ Rasmus Hojlund
Meccanismo
Carboni left centreback covers Hojlund central-to-right forward movement.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Independent rate 0.68 and 2.48 attempts per90, not direct duel success.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Carboni | shots_p90 | 0,68 per90 | 8 gare |
| Rasmus Hojlund | shots_p90 | 2,48 per90 | 8 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Monza 11 goals and ten conceded in five; Napoli nine goals and four conceded with 10.60 expected chances. A competitive scoring environment can arise.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Monza same-model xG incomplete for two recent games, so it is risky to infer precise sustainable scoring rates.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
Monza early lead lets Robinson and Varela use away defenders' recovery space.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Napoli can drive pressure through McTominay and De Bruyne as Monza retreats.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
Napoli ahead protect with Lobotka and find Politano and Lang against advancing wingbacks.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Varela recently finishing well and home attacking substitutes can still respond.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
Monza can stay compact in a defensive 5-4-1 and deny Napoli's narrow half-spaces.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Napoli 90 shots created in last five and Monza 77 conceded encourage eventual visitor entries.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Both teams have strong recent goals and Monza lost defensive discipline in a series of fixtures.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Visitor lineup injuries can distort normal probabilities, while Monza xG is incomplete.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Napoli have stronger recent chance quality and conceded four compared with ten by Monza.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Napoli lose Badiashile and Spinazzola and Monza's eleven actual recent goals demonstrate finishing threat.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Monza conceded ten and both attacks are active, creating broader event tails.
Elementi contrari
Monza model gaps prevent well-calibrated high-side predictions.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
A compact start is possible if the hosts avoid opening channels.
Elementi contrari
Monza scored eleven recently while Napoli created more than two expected goals per match in last five.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Napoli chance advantage could produce a controlled multi-goal outcome.
Elementi contrari
Early home response may force the total beyond a moderate branch.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Unusual early goals and open late changes could create rare extremes.
Elementi contrari
No homogeneous full Monza chance-quality sample makes the extreme range uncertain.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Gol per tempo | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Sintesi tecnica F2 originale
Monza 11 scored/10 conceded and 69 for/77 against attempts last five; Napoli9/4 with 10.60xG/5.75xGA and90/72 attempts, but losing Badiashile and Spinazzola; Monza complete xG windows unavailable. Allegri suspended.
Punti ancora incerti
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the last5 xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the last5 xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the last3 xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the last3 xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the season xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the season xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.venue.metrics.xg","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the venue xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.venue.metrics.xga","reason":"Monza model has six dated xG events, missing Cagliari and Torino, so the venue xG sample cannot be compared across full league window."}
Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Monza detailed same-provider xG first six games only, last two missing 2026-10-27 10:11
- Napoli eight Serie A match xG and xGA from same provider 2026-10-27 10:11
- Monza 8 Serie A match shot logs 2026-10-27 10:11
- Napoli 8 Serie A match shot logs, European matches excluded 2026-10-27 10:11
- Monza eight match shots on target logs 2026-10-27 10:11
- Napoli eight Serie A shots on target logs 2026-10-27 10:11
- Monza descriptive Serie A eight-match corner logs 2026-10-27 10:11
- Napoli descriptive Serie A eight-match corner logs 2026-10-27 10:11
- 26 October full probable lineup Monza Napoli and alternatives 2026-10-27 10:11
- Badiashile and Spinazzola injuries verified 2026-10-27 10:11
- Monza player per90 rates from league shooting table 2026-10-27 10:11
- Napoli player per90 rates from league shooting table 2026-10-27 10:11
- Monza 4-0 Cagliari original result confirmation 2026-10-27 10:11
- Torino 3-2 Monza orientation 2026-10-27 10:11