Mantova–Cremonese
Motivazione della nuova proposta
Cremonese soltanto 3 gol nelle ultime cinque e 3 nelle quattro trasferte; Mantova ha concesso 5 nelle ultime cinque, rischio di episodio ospite.
Altre opzioni valutate
Multigol 1–3 · No Goal
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Mantova senza xG comparabili recenti; un possesso ospite sterile non impedisce un gol episodico.. Controtesi: Mantova 8 GF/5 con 23 tiri in porta, Cremonese solo 3 GF/5 e varie assenze; primo gol evita obbligo di vittoria o multipli.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Mantova
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Mantova eight goals for and five against in last five, 63 shots taken, 68 conceded; Ruocco five goals from limited minutes and away win against Catanzaro overstate xG data from first six games.
Qualità avversari considerati
Entella, Palermo, Catanzaro, Pisa and Sampdoria form five mix different opponent quality. The Catanzaro 3-1 away win has to be normalized from 1-3 away-venue display.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 8 | 5 | n.d. | n.d. | 63 | 68 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 23 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 4 | 3 | n.d. | n.d. | 39 | 41 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 14 | 8 | n.d. | n.d. | 99 | 104 | 40 | 29 | 30 | 41 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 7 | 5 | n.d. | n.d. | 55 | 46 | 21 | 13 | 16 | 19 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Virtus Entella | Trasferta | 1 | 0 |
| 17/10/2026 | Palermo FC | Casa | 0 | 2 |
| 11/10/2026 | Catanzaro Calcio | Trasferta | 3 | 1 |
| 20/09/2026 | Pisa Sporting Club | Casa | 2 | 2 |
| 13/09/2026 | UC Sampdoria | Casa | 2 | 0 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Virtus Entella | Trasferta | 1 | 0 |
| 17/10/2026 | Palermo FC | Casa | 0 | 2 |
| 11/10/2026 | Catanzaro Calcio | Trasferta | 3 | 1 |
Cremonese
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Cremonese three goals and six conceded in five with 4.87 xG against 5.54 xGA, season 6 scored from 8.73 expected and eleven conceded from 8.31 xGA. Performance better than results without implying imminent result reversal.
Qualità avversari considerati
Cremonese faced Juve Stabia, Pisa, Arezzo, Entella and Cesena. It has struggled to convert possessions but 20 attempts against Juve Stabia show one high-volume exception.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 3 | 6 | 4,87 | 5,54 | 63 | 71 | 22 | 15 | 18 | 22 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 1 | 4 | 2,4 | 3,32 | 33 | 46 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 6 | 11 | 8,73 | 8,31 | 96 | 103 | 32 | 30 | 34 | 31 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 3 | 6 | 2,89 | 4,55 | 47 | 51 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Juve Stabia 1907 | Casa | 0 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Pisa Sporting Club | Trasferta | 1 | 3 |
| 10/10/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Trasferta | 0 | 0 |
| 19/09/2026 | Virtus Entella | Casa | 0 | 0 |
| 12/09/2026 | Cesena FC | Trasferta | 2 | 2 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Juve Stabia 1907 | Casa | 0 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Pisa Sporting Club | Trasferta | 1 | 3 |
| 10/10/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Trasferta | 0 | 0 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Mantova
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francesco Bardi | GK | Bardi directs the three-man home back line under opposing first-line pressure. |
| 2 | Bodin Tomasevic | RCB | Tomasevic right central defender screens Licina's inside movement near the area. |
| 3 | Stefano Cella | CB | Cella keeps the central line narrow against Nasti's attacking depth. |
| 4 | Alessio Castellini | LCB | Castellini balances Benaissa's forward positions and the left box channel. |
| 5 | Tommaso Del Lungo | RWB | Del Lungo serves as right wingback and tracks Pezzella and Vandeputte flank links. |
| 6 | Simone Trimboli | DM | Trimboli screens the space behind Kouda and tries to limit Berti as playmaker. |
| 7 | Rachid Kouda | CM | Kouda's inclusion ahead of Ignacchiti offers forward-running central midfield. |
| 8 | Fahem Benaissa Yahia | LWB | Benaissa serves as left wingback and covers Barbieri's overlap near midfield. |
| 9 | Davide Bragantini | AM | Bragantini brings speed as right-sided attacking midfielder when used over Ilie. |
| 10 | Francesco Ruocco | AM | Ruocco is home attacking reference with five league goals and 0.77 goals per ninety. |
| 11 | Ettore Gliozzi | CF | Gliozzi anchors Mantova front line, two goals in 421 minutes and winner at Entella. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Federico Chinetti injured
- Flavio Paoletti injured
- Jonathan Silva injured
Probabile formazione e reparto · Cremonese
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Fulignati | GK | Fulignati handles the high ball toward Gliozzi and initiates possession. |
| 2 | Tommaso Barbieri | RB | Barbieri is right back, facing Bragantini and the returning home wide player. |
| 3 | Federico Baschirotto | RCB | Baschirotto defends central target Gliozzi and protects Berti's deeper line. |
| 4 | Sebastiano Luperto | LCB | Luperto left central defender controls Ruocco runs into the penalty area. |
| 5 | Giuseppe Pezzella | LB | Pezzella occupies left back but Jack remains a selection option, not official. |
| 6 | Morten Thorsby | CM | Thorsby advances from midfield into close support around Berti and Licina. |
| 7 | Alberto Grassi | DM | Grassi serves as conservative holding pivot and counters Kouda's midfield runs. |
| 8 | Adin Licina | RW | Licina offers inverted right-wing attacking creativity, receiving from Barbieri. |
| 9 | Tommaso Berti | AM | Berti supports Nasti in attacking midfield and creates 1.7 chances per ninety. |
| 10 | Jari Vandeputte | LW | Vandeputte wide-left creator delivers two point four chances per full ninety. |
| 11 | Marco Nasti | CF | Nasti is centre forward with four shots per ninety but low goals conversion. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Matteo Bianchetti injured
- Michele Collocolo injured
- Fabio Gerli injured
- Simone Pontisso injured
- Yuri Rocchetti injured
Profili individuali: numeri e ruolo nell’incontro
Dati calcistici per spiegare le dinamiche; nessuna giocata sui calciatori.
| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Bragantini | Mantova | goals_p90 0,32 (7 gare, per90) | Bragantini has 0.32 league goals per ninety, a time-limited sample that supports attacking but not guaranteed finishing threat. |
| Francesco Ruocco | Mantova | goals_p90 0,77 (8 gare, per90) | Ruocco has five league goals across 584 minutes, 0.77 goals per ninety, substantially above older observed xG conversion. |
| Ettore Gliozzi | Mantova | goals_p90 0,43 (8 gare, per90) | Gliozzi averages 0.43 league goals per ninety and supplied latest winning goal, though his chances volume can fluctuate. |
| Tommaso Barbieri | Cremonese | chances_created_p90 0,8 (3 gare, per90) | Barbieri creates 0.8 chances per ninety from right back in a short three-game sample against home rotations. |
| Sebastiano Luperto | Cremonese | chances_created_p90 0,5 (7 gare, per90) | Luperto is defender with 0.5 chances created per ninety; this offensive metric does not equal tackles. |
| Tommaso Berti | Cremonese | chances_created_p90 1,7 (8 gare, per90) | Berti creates 1.7 chances per ninety as the visiting midfielder behind Nasti. |
| Jari Vandeputte | Cremonese | chances_created_p90 2,4 (7 gare, per90) | Vandeputte creates 2.4 chances per ninety and can draw home midfield wide. |
| Marco Nasti | Cremonese | Tiri / 90 4 (7 gare, per90) | Nasti takes four shots per ninety but has not turned that into a league goal, a potential role uncertainty. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Davide Bragantini ↔ Tommaso Barbieri
Meccanismo
Bragantini receives on Mantova attacking left half-space, drawing Barbieri inside from right-back.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Separate player goals_p90 0.32 and opponent chances_created_p90 0.8. These do not measure duel win probabilities.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Bragantini | goals_p90 | 0,32 per90 | 7 gare |
| Tommaso Barbieri | chances_created_p90 | 0,8 per90 | 3 gare |
2. Francesco Ruocco ↔ Tommaso Berti
Meccanismo
Ruocco and Berti contest the central line of creative midfield, a zone confrontation rather than direct man-marking.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Separate player goals_p90 0.77 and opponent chances_created_p90 1.7. These do not measure duel win probabilities.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francesco Ruocco | goals_p90 | 0,77 per90 | 8 gare |
| Tommaso Berti | chances_created_p90 | 1,7 per90 | 8 gare |
3. Ettore Gliozzi ↔ Sebastiano Luperto
Meccanismo
Gliozzi contests Luperto at central box attacks and wins second balls for Ruocco.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Separate player goals_p90 0.43 and opponent chances_created_p90 0.5. These do not measure duel win probabilities.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ettore Gliozzi | goals_p90 | 0,43 per90 | 8 gare |
| Sebastiano Luperto | chances_created_p90 | 0,5 per90 | 7 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Mantova scored eight and conceded five over five, Cremonese three and six; home can progress through Ruocco while away retains possession through Grassi.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Mantova has no complete xG series, so home scoring value should not be inferred from results.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
Mantova ahead uses wingback recovery and Ruocco transition passes into Gliozzi runs.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Cremonese may turn to Bonazzoli and De Luca, disrupting this defensive pattern.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
Cremonese ahead controls Grassi midfield and Vandeputte flank chances while home wingbacks move higher.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Modesto may introduce Ilie and shift Bragantini position to renew threat.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
Cremonese's two scoreless draws and low five-match output make cautious balance possible.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Cremonese generated twenty shots last match and Mantova had 63 recent shots.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Mantova eight recent goals and Cremonese season eleven against could lead to end-to-end transitions.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Cremonese only 4.87 recent expected goals and Mantova missed xG prevent reliable high scoring probabilities.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Mantova table position suggests clear favouritism, but first six model xG7.84 and goals13 show substantial overfinishing.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Cremonese's three from 4.87 xG in last five indicates chances underconverted and not fully explained by results.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Cremonese conceded eleven from 8.31 xGA this season; some matches have been open.
Elementi contrari
Cremonese expected goals 8.73 over eight and Mantova unverified aggregate hinder forecast.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Two Cremonese scoreless draws and a seven-shot Mantova victory indicate some controlled outcomes.
Elementi contrari
The hosts have eight recent goals and Cremonese generated twenty shots last round.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Recent form goals and shooting logs are consistent with two or three total goals in many game states.
Elementi contrari
Early scores and wingbacks advancing can raise total past the moderate branch.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
A lopsided result might create late offensive substitutions and very open transitions.
Elementi contrari
A high total would extrapolate a rare tail from numbers without a complete home xG model.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol per tempo | Osservato in F2 | Over 1.5 reti primo tempo | 1 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Punti ancora incerti
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full last5 observations cannot be validated."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full last5 observations cannot be validated."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full last3 observations cannot be validated."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full last3 observations cannot be validated."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full season observations cannot be validated."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full season observations cannot be validated."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.venue.metrics.xg","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full venue observations cannot be validated."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.venue.metrics.xga","reason":"Mantova xG consistent model source covers only first six matches, missing Palermo and Entella; full venue observations cannot be validated."}
Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Mantova 7 earlier league shots for and against. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Cremonese 7 earlier league shots for and against. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Eight games league corner logs. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Eight games league corner logs. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Older match-specific SOT, incomplete latest. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Older match-specific SOT, incomplete latest. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Same model only six matches, not season eight; cannot extrapolate. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Eight Cremonese games 8.73 xG, 8.31 xGA; last five 4.87/5.54. 2026-10-27 07:08
- 24 Oct Entella 0-1 Mantova, away shots 7, SOT 3, corners 1, 14 opposition shots. 2026-10-27 07:08
- 24 Oct Cremonese 0-1 Juve Stabia 20 home shots, 6 SOT, 6 corners. 2026-10-27 07:08
- 26 Oct official 25 Cremonese callups with Stuckler actually called. 2026-10-27 07:08
- 26 Oct late local Mantova and Cremonese projected XI and roles, including Bragantini/Kouda turnover. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Independent probable XI with Ignacchiti/Ilie and Jack alternative plus injuries. 2026-10-27 07:08
- FBref partial 2026/27 Mantova player shooting samples; direct fetch access denied, index provides raw partial results. 2026-10-27 07:08
- FBref eight-game Cremonese player rates partially searchable; direct fetch denied. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Official local account: Mantova beat Catanzaro 3-1, previous statz away score was listed as 1-3. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Cremonese official 24 Oct result and lineup. 2026-10-27 07:08
- Ruocco Gliozzi Bragantini sourced goals per90 in full 8/7 sample 2026-10-27 07:08
- Cremonese Berti Vandeputte Barbieri Luperto creative chances per90 2026-10-27 07:08
- Nasti/Berti Vandeputte shooting attempts per90 2026-10-27 07:08
- Mantova 0 Palermo 2 four shots on target each 2026-10-27 07:08
- Mantova 3 Catanzaro 1, SOT eight versus four, 17 attempts 2026-10-27 07:08
- Pisa three Cremonese one, shots on target Crem three Pisa five 2026-10-27 07:08
- Arezzo Cremonese zero-zero with two shots on target each 2026-10-27 07:08
- Actual Mantova player minutes 2026/27 2026-10-27 07:08
- Crosscheck Mantova 99 shots,40 on goal; Cremonese96 shots32 on goal 2026-10-27 07:08