Frosinone–Lecce
Motivazione della nuova proposta
Frosinone 9,13 xG e 13,12 xGA/5, Lecce privo di Gaspar. 2-1/2-2/3-1 sono compatibili, ma la quota esatta della combo 1X + MG2-4 non è emersa dai cataloghi consultati.
Altre opzioni valutate
Over 2,5 gol · Goal Sì
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Frosinone sovraperforma la conversione e Lecce incompleto; quota 1,49 richiede circa 67% di riuscita.. Controtesi: Frosinone 11 GF e 9,13 xG/5, Lecce privo dello squalificato Gaspar; gol squadra evita che la previsione dipenda da un gol ospite.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Frosinone
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Frosinone 11 goals and ten allowed last five, 110 shots made and 99 conceded; xG 9.13 and xGA 13.12 suggests defensive prevention not stable and finishing above xG. Raimondo already seven goals from 4.58 xG in eight games.
Qualità avversari considerati
Frosinone last five Atalanta, Sassuolo, Napoli, Como and Genoa; Atalanta four-all includes concession of 4.55 expected goals against, Naples loss 0-3 despite 17 shots.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 11 | 10 | 9,13 | 13,12 | 110 | 99 | 33 | 36 | 34 | 34 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 8 | 9 | 4,79 | 9,23 | 62 | 55 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 18 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 17 | 13 | 12,75 | 19,58 | 146 | 159 | 49 | 49 | 47 | 56 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 9 | 5 | 6,59 | 7,67 | 67 | 76 | 26 | 23 | 20 | 26 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Atalanta BC | Trasferta | 4 | 4 |
| 16/10/2026 | US Sassuolo | Casa | 4 | 2 |
| 10/10/2026 | SSC Napoli | Trasferta | 0 | 3 |
| 20/09/2026 | Como 1907 | Casa | 2 | 0 |
| 12/09/2026 | Genoa CFC | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Atalanta BC | Trasferta | 4 | 4 |
| 16/10/2026 | US Sassuolo | Casa | 4 | 2 |
| 10/10/2026 | SSC Napoli | Trasferta | 0 | 3 |
Lecce
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Lecce 7 goals and 9 conceded last five, 65 shots for and 60 conceded; 16 shots vs Juventus without scoring. Gaspar suspended and Tiago Gabriel doubtful, central defence reshuffle; seven-match xG source incomplete.
Qualità avversari considerati
Lecce recent Juventus, Udinese, Bologna, Milan and Monza; road 3-0 win at Udinese was unusual scoring response after a 0-3 defeat at Milan.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 7 | 9 | n.d. | n.d. | 65 | 60 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 15 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 4 | 4 | n.d. | n.d. | 52 | 31 | 20 | 9 | 19 | 7 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 9 | 14 | n.d. | n.d. | 94 | 114 | 37 | 48 | 36 | 28 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 5 | 4 | n.d. | n.d. | 45 | 63 | 22 | 22 | 15 | 15 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Juventus FC | Casa | 0 | 2 |
| 18/10/2026 | Udinese Calcio | Trasferta | 3 | 0 |
| 11/10/2026 | Bologna FC | Casa | 1 | 2 |
| 20/09/2026 | AC Milan | Trasferta | 0 | 3 |
| 13/09/2026 | AC Monza | Casa | 3 | 2 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2026 | Juventus FC | Casa | 0 | 2 |
| 18/10/2026 | Udinese Calcio | Trasferta | 3 | 0 |
| 11/10/2026 | Bologna FC | Casa | 1 | 2 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Frosinone
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lorenzo Palmisani | GK | Starts in goal behind a line conceding 13.12xGA in last five and must manage wide crosses. |
| 2 | Anthony Oyono | RB | Right back defends Fatah inside movement and supports Ghedjemis wide outlet. |
| 3 | Gabriele Calvani | RCB | Projected central right defender, Monterisi competition changes exact back pair. |
| 4 | Ilario Monterisi | LCB | Interchanges with Cittadini, protects centre-forward Geubbels box positioning. |
| 5 | Aleksa Terzic | LB | Potential left back ahead of Bracaglia, screens N'Dri and Veiga progress. |
| 6 | Patrizio Masini | CM | Central midfielder intercepts Lecce direct runs and supports Schmid. |
| 7 | Giacomo Calò | DM | Playmaking midfielder 2.23 shots per90 and three goals, pressure valve for Raimondo. |
| 8 | Fares Ghedjemis | RW | Right winger stretches Gallo and serves Raimondo; xG per90 in source .22. |
| 9 | Romano Schmid | AM | Primary between-line creator, attacks space behind Ngom and Kaba. |
| 10 | Giorgi Kvernadze | LW | Left winger 3.26 shots per90, diagonal dribbling against Veiga. |
| 11 | Antonio Raimondo | CF | Lead central scorer seven goals from 4.58 xG, shooting 3.56 per90 with some finishing overperformance. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Florian Grillitsch unavailable
Probabile formazione e reparto · Lecce
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wladimiro Falcone | GK | Keeper defending high Frosinone shot volume and rebound risk. |
| 2 | Danilo Veiga | RB | Right-back covers Kvernadze diagonal and can overlap when Fatah presses. |
| 3 | Jamil Siebert | RCB | Selected because Gaspar suspended, central coverage of Raimondo with less settled partner. |
| 4 | Gaby Jean | LCB | Candidate alongside Siebert as Tiago Gabriel recovers from knee contusion; Ndaba alternative. |
| 5 | Antonino Gallo | LB | Left defender balances Ghedjemis delivery and protects space behind winger N'Dri. |
| 6 | Mohamed Kaba | CM | Lecce midfield connector supports Veiga, some rotational risk with Gorter. |
| 7 | Oumar Ngom | CM | Carries through Frosinone central press, protects Calò attacking lane. |
| 8 | Youssef Maleh | CM | Central midfielder tracks Schmid linking movements and gains second balls. |
| 9 | Konan N'Dri | RW | Right winger creates transition outlet against Terzic and moves inward toward Palmisani. |
| 10 | Willem Geubbels | CF | Projected striker with historic xG .50/90 in multi-year sample, competes with Paco Esteban. |
| 11 | Amar Fatah | LW | Projected left wide finisher, Monteiro is a meaningful rotation alternative. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Kialonda Gaspar suspended after red card against Juventus
- Ivan Ilić unavailable
- Medon Berisha unavailable
- Lassana Coulibaly unavailable
- Santiago Pierotti unavailable
- Tiago Gabriel doubtful knee knock
Profili individuali: numeri e ruolo nell’incontro
Dati calcistici per spiegare le dinamiche; nessuna giocata sui calciatori.
| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Oyono | Frosinone | Tiri / 90 1,11 (8 gare, per90) | Observed shots_p90 of 1.11 for a specific Frosinone tactical role; source sample 8 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Giacomo Calò | Frosinone | Tiri / 90 2,23 (8 gare, per90) | Observed shots_p90 of 2.23 for a specific Frosinone tactical role; source sample 8 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Giorgi Kvernadze | Frosinone | Tiri / 90 3,26 (8 gare, per90) | Observed shots_p90 of 3.26 for a specific Frosinone tactical role; source sample 8 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Antonio Raimondo | Frosinone | Tiri / 90 3,56 (8 gare, per90) | Observed shots_p90 of 3.56 for a specific Frosinone tactical role; source sample 8 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Fares Ghedjemis | Frosinone | xg_p90 0,22 (6 gare, per90) | Observed xg_p90 of 0.22 for a specific Frosinone tactical role; source sample 6 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Danilo Veiga | Lecce | Tiri / 90 0 (8 gare, per90) | Observed shots_p90 of 0 for a specific Lecce tactical role; source sample 8 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Jamil Siebert | Lecce | Tiri / 90 0,56 (8 gare, per90) | Observed shots_p90 of 0.56 for a specific Lecce tactical role; source sample 8 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Antonino Gallo | Lecce | Tiri / 90 0,31 (8 gare, per90) | Observed shots_p90 of 0.31 for a specific Lecce tactical role; source sample 8 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Konan N'Dri | Lecce | xg_p90 0,24 (17 gare, per90) | Observed xg_p90 of 0.24 for a specific Lecce tactical role; source sample 17 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Willem Geubbels | Lecce | xg_p90 0,5 (4 gare, per90) | Observed xg_p90 of 0.5 for a specific Lecce tactical role; source sample 4 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
| Amar Fatah | Lecce | xg_p90 0,16 (6 gare, per90) | Observed xg_p90 of 0.16 for a specific Lecce tactical role; source sample 6 matches and for xG Lecce may include previous campaign; no direct tackle or duel success implied. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Giorgi Kvernadze ↔ Danilo Veiga
Meccanismo
Kvernadze home left winger cuts inside against Veiga on the visiting right.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Two independent player observations 3.26 shots_p90 and 0 shots_p90; no evidence of exact head-to-head duel success.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgi Kvernadze | shots_p90 | 3,26 per90 | 8 gare |
| Danilo Veiga | shots_p90 | 0 per90 | 8 gare |
2. Antonio Raimondo ↔ Jamil Siebert
Meccanismo
Raimondo central striker attacks Siebert's position in the depleted Lecce defence.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Two independent player observations 3.56 shots_p90 and 0.56 shots_p90; no evidence of exact head-to-head duel success.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Raimondo | shots_p90 | 3,56 per90 | 8 gare |
| Jamil Siebert | shots_p90 | 0,56 per90 | 8 gare |
3. Giacomo Calò ↔ Konan N'Dri
Meccanismo
Calò playmaking progression contests N'Dri defensive-recovery channel on the Lecce right.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Two independent player observations 2.23 shots_p90 and 0.24 xg_p90; no evidence of exact head-to-head duel success.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giacomo Calò | shots_p90 | 2,23 per90 | 8 gare |
| Konan N'Dri | xg_p90 | 0,24 per90 | 17 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Frosinone high-volume attacking 110 shots and 9.13xG in last five but exceptionally porous 13.12xGA. Lecce central defence loses suspended Gaspar while the striker Geubbels could receive more opportunities.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Home forwards finish above eight-game xG and Frosinone 4-4 Atalanta one-off score inflates goal average. Lecce away Udinese 3-0 shows ability to reverse weak results.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
Frosinone goal first opens space for Kvernadze diagonal and forces visitors to commit fullbacks.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Lecce can switch to Monteiro/Esteban with extra ball-carrying and quick counters against home defensive instability.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
Lecce goal first invites 4-2-3-1 high Frosinone press, allowing N'Dri to counter against Terzic.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Frosinone created at least 17 shots in latest five, so visitors may struggle to protect a narrow lead.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
Lecce could protect their two newly paired centrebacks by slowing play through Ngom and Maleh.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Frosinone concedes huge opponent shots and the match could open from a single defensive mistake.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Frosinone last five 11-10 goals; both teams have opportunities and no settled visiting central defence.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Lecce recent goals include a 3-0 at Udinese despite modest underlying quality and Frosinone overfinishing; high-goal repeat isn't guaranteed.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Frosinone attacking pressure and Lecce injuries might suggest easy home scoring.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Frosinone has conceded 19.58 xGA over eight and collected six points above expectation, a meaningful reason to distrust certainty.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
High Frosinone xGA and Gaspar absence increase possibility of a wide score distribution.
Elementi contrari
Lecce current missing xG match limits a calibrated four-goal probability.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Lecce defensive changes can initially create conservative block and cautious transition.
Elementi contrari
Frosinone 110 attempts last five and high xGA on both sides undermine a low-event certainty.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
A mid-scoring encounter is plausible if home chance creation meets visitors' limited finishing.
Elementi contrari
Frosinone 4-4 with Atalanta and two 4-goal attacking outings increase upside.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
If early goals force back lines high, there is an exceptional high-score tail.
Elementi contrari
Home finishing from limited quality and high Atalanta total should not be treated as repeatable.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol per tempo | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Sintesi tecnica F2 originale
Frosinone 11GF10GA and110 shots for99 allowed, xG9.13 xGA13.12 last five. Lecce7GF9GA last five from65 attempts. Lecce Gaspar suspended and central partner injured; Frosinone has finished17 from12.75 season xG, conceded13 from19.58 xGA. Recent scoreline performance likely volatile.
Punti ancora incerti
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete last5 xG."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete last5 xG."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete last3 xG."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete last3 xG."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete season xG."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete season xG."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.venue.metrics.xg","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete venue xG."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.venue.metrics.xga","reason":"Lecce Statz source exposes only seven 2026-27 event xG rows, missing 25 October Juventus; no homogeneous complete venue xG."}
Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Frosinone eight expected goals per match and model xGA; away match score reversed as venue first 2026-10-27 10:18
- Lecce seven of eight latest Serie A xG matches, excludes Oct25 Juventus; older mixed-year last20 totals disallowed 2026-10-27 10:18
- Eight Frosinone league match shots for and against 2026-10-27 10:18
- Eight Lecce league match shots for and against 2026-10-27 10:18
- Eight Frosinone league per match shots on target 2026-10-27 10:18
- Eight Lecce league per match shots on target 2026-10-27 10:18
- Eight Frosinone league corners descriptive only 2026-10-27 10:18
- Eight Lecce league corners descriptive only 2026-10-27 10:18
- Frosinone 2026/27 Serie A player shots per 90 from official shooting table 2026-10-27 10:18
- Lecce shooting per 90 in 2026/27 from same-league shooting table 2026-10-27 10:18
- Lecce Geubbels and Fatah xG/90 player data on source, includes multi-year history and explicitly limited 2026-10-27 10:18
- Oct27 Sky projected XIs Gaspar out, Tiago Gabriel doubtful 2026-10-27 10:18
- Oct26 2026 projected lineups with alternatives Calvani Monterisi Terzic Bracaglia 2026-10-27 10:18
- Updated 27 Oct probable eleven and disciplinary absence 2026-10-27 10:18
- Oct25 Lecce Juventus 0-2 with Gaspar red, 16 shots 4 on target 2026-10-27 10:18
- Oct25 Lecce xG 1.05 from distinct model; cannot be merged with seven Statz observations 2026-10-27 10:18