Cesena–Empoli
Motivazione della nuova proposta
Cesena ed Empoli: solo 4 reti ciascuna nelle ultime cinque, ma 91 e 100 tiri concessi; 1-1/2-1 compatibili, rischio 0-0.
Altre opzioni valutate
Under 2,5 gol · No Goal
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Cesena appena 4 GF/5 e turnover forzato; selezione a fiducia modesta.. Controtesi: Cesena 59 tiri e 13 SOT/5, solo 4 reti ma Empoli 10 GS/5; scelto il primo gol invece di un Over più esigente.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Cesena
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Cesena made 59 shots and conceded 91 across five while scoring four and conceding nine. Six earlier Shpendi goals are unusually efficient against shots and Fiori is suspended.
Qualità avversari considerati
Cesena last five faced Modena, Avellino, Benevento, Juve Stabia and Cremonese; opponent quality not uniform.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 4 | 9 | n.d. | n.d. | 59 | 91 | 13 | 24 | 20 | 27 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 1 | 6 | n.d. | n.d. | 33 | 57 | 8 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 8 | 12 | n.d. | n.d. | 93 | 134 | 24 | 40 | 32 | 49 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 5 | 5 | n.d. | n.d. | 53 | 68 | 16 | 23 | 22 | 25 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Modena FC | Trasferta | 0 | 3 |
| 18/10/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Casa | 1 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | Benevento Calcio | Trasferta | 0 | 2 |
| 18/09/2026 | Juve Stabia | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 12/09/2026 | Cremonese Calcio | Casa | 2 | 2 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Modena FC | Trasferta | 0 | 3 |
| 18/10/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Casa | 1 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | Benevento Calcio | Trasferta | 0 | 2 |
Empoli
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Empoli managed only 54 shots and conceded 100 in five while scoring four and conceding ten. Losing Curto alters the central defence, and Stiven Shpendi may start after injury.
Qualità avversari considerati
Empoli last five faced Vicenza, Ascoli, Palermo, Modena and Arezzo; Palermo and Modena raised shot pressure.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 4 | 10 | n.d. | n.d. | 54 | 100 | 16 | 27 | 17 | 22 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 3 | 7 | n.d. | n.d. | 35 | 63 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 15 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 7 | 13 | n.d. | n.d. | 86 | 140 | 25 | 43 | 32 | 31 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 4 | 6 | n.d. | n.d. | 47 | 56 | 11 | 24 | 22 | 13 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2026 | Vicenza Virtus | Casa | 0 | 2 |
| 17/10/2026 | Ascoli Calcio | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | Palermo FC | Casa | 2 | 4 |
| 20/09/2026 | Modena FC | Trasferta | 1 | 2 |
| 11/09/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Casa | 0 | 1 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2026 | Vicenza Virtus | Casa | 0 | 2 |
| 17/10/2026 | Ascoli Calcio | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | Palermo FC | Casa | 2 | 4 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Cesena
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Siano | GK | Goalkeeper handling passing and pressure against the visitors' attacking trio. |
| 2 | Andrea Ciofi | RB | Full-back contains the inward deliveries from Empoli left wingback Corrado. |
| 3 | Mihajlo Ilic | RCB | Central defender tracks Stiven Shpendi inside the central penalty-area channel. |
| 4 | Jacopo Gelli | LCB | Left centre-back supports Mangraviti when Empoli push down their right. |
| 5 | Massimiliano Mangraviti | LB | Left full-back balances advanced Frabotta positioning against Egan overlaps. |
| 6 | Dimitri Bisoli | CM | Midfield carrier creates second-ball support in front of the opponent's defenders. |
| 7 | Emil Bohinen | DM | Deep midfielder organises possession with Guidi as possible alternative starter. |
| 8 | Marco Dalla Vecchia | CM | Rotation midfield runner linking the wide channels, with Francesconi also an option. |
| 9 | Xavello Druiventak | RW | Right-wing challenger faces Corrado and aims to stretch Empoli outside. |
| 10 | Cristian Shpendi | CF | Central striker has six league goals in early season with 1.97 shots per full ninety. |
| 11 | Gianluca Frabotta | LW | Usually a defender, expected high on the left while Antonio Fiori serves suspension. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Antonio Fiori - suspended one round
Probabile formazione e reparto · Empoli
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacopo Seghetti | GK | Goalkeeper behind a reshuffled three-player back line, exposed to home crosses. |
| 2 | Luca Magnino | RCB | Right centre-back covers Frabotta wide-to-central and protects Egan recovery. |
| 3 | Simone Romagnoli | CB | Expected middle defender for suspended Curto against Cristian Shpendi. |
| 4 | Cristian Cauz | LCB | Left-sided centre-back contested by Cristian Shpendi central runs. |
| 5 | Matteo Egan | RWB | Right wingback drives wide but must track Cesena's high left attacker. |
| 6 | Edoardo Biondini | CM | Carries from midfield toward final-third entries and central outlets. |
| 7 | Filippo Bandinelli | CM | Experienced interior responds to Bisoli runs and defensive transitions. |
| 8 | Niccolo Corrado | LWB | Left wingback advances against Ciofi and has 0.89 attempts per ninety. |
| 9 | Edoardo Saporiti | AM | Creative half-space attacker has 1.76 shots per ninety in eight-match league baseline. |
| 10 | Filippo Distefano | AM | Second attacking midfielder makes forward runs and supports Stiven Shpendi. |
| 11 | Stiven Shpendi | CF | Expected to return after injury and face his twin brother Cristian in the same match. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Marco Curto - suspended one round
Profili individuali: numeri e ruolo nell’incontro
Dati calcistici per spiegare le dinamiche; nessuna giocata sui calciatori.
| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Shpendi | Cesena | Tiri / 90 1,97 (7 gare, per90) | Cristian Shpendi scored six goals in early appearances and generated 1.97 attempts per ninety, a rate from finite observed minutes. |
| Dimitri Bisoli | Cesena | Tiri / 90 0,72 (7 gare, per90) | Bisoli attempts 0.72 shots per ninety across his earlier league sample and arrives from midfield. |
| Andrea Ciofi | Cesena | Tiri / 90 0,59 (7 gare, per90) | Ciofi creates 0.59 shots per ninety while mostly covering Cesena defensive wide zone. |
| Cristian Cauz | Empoli | Tiri / 90 0,37 (8 gare, per90) | Cauz shoots 0.37 per ninety but chiefly blocks the central runs from the home forward. |
| Edoardo Saporiti | Empoli | Tiri / 90 1,76 (8 gare, per90) | Saporiti produces 1.76 attempts per ninety in eight league matches and works between midfield lines. |
| Niccolo Corrado | Empoli | Tiri / 90 0,89 (7 gare, per90) | Corrado averages 0.89 attempts per ninety from wingback while making overlapping runs. |
| Luca Magnino | Empoli | Tiri / 90 0,13 (8 gare, per90) | Magnino produces 0.13 shots per ninety in the available eight-match sample and occupies right defensive role. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Cristian Shpendi ↔ Cristian Cauz
Meccanismo
Cristian Shpendi box entries versus Cauz coverage on the Empoli left side of the three centre-backs.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Two measured role-level attempts per90, 1.97 versus 0.37; not an actual duel outcome or defensive tackle metric.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Shpendi | shots_p90 | 1,97 per90 | 7 gare |
| Cristian Cauz | shots_p90 | 0,37 per90 | 8 gare |
2. Dimitri Bisoli ↔ Edoardo Saporiti
Meccanismo
Bisoli central second-ball arrivals versus Saporiti attacks in the opposing halfspace.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Two measured role-level attempts per90, 0.72 versus 1.76; not an actual duel outcome or defensive tackle metric.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dimitri Bisoli | shots_p90 | 0,72 per90 | 7 gare |
| Edoardo Saporiti | shots_p90 | 1,76 per90 | 8 gare |
3. Andrea Ciofi ↔ Niccolo Corrado
Meccanismo
Ciofi right-back wide role versus Corrado left wingback overlapping position.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Two measured role-level attempts per90, 0.59 versus 0.89; not an actual duel outcome or defensive tackle metric.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Ciofi | shots_p90 | 0,59 per90 | 7 gare |
| Niccolo Corrado | shots_p90 | 0,89 per90 | 7 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Both clubs have scored four across five games, but defensive shot concessions at 91 for Cesena and 100 for Empoli could produce entries.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Both attacks have low shot quality and the incomplete xG sample stops an exact chance-calibration claim.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
If Cesena go ahead, Druiventak and Frabotta provide width behind advanced visitors.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Missing Fiori weakens the left final ball; the away back three can sit deeper.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
If Empoli score first, Cesena must commit fullbacks and rely on Shpendi centrally.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Biondini and Bandinelli can close counterpress lanes, and the home six-game finishing streak may not return.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
A long draw is feasible: both teams have only four goals scored in the last five league games.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Empoli concede nearly twenty shot attempts per match and a rebound or individual mistake could break it.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Both defenses allow large shot totals, leaving chance for quick goals through wingback transitions.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Attackers have not converted volume reliably; an open match is not necessarily a high-expected-goals match.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Empoli appear vulnerable after four defeats in five, but Cesena have not won in the same span.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Neither badge nor home field guarantees a dominant attack; missing winger/central defender could change route.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Empoli 100 shots conceded in last five may generate high pace if Cesena exploit turnovers.
Elementi contrari
Cesena produced just four shots against Modena and loses Fiori.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Only four goals scored in the last five by either attack and a suspended starter for each team.
Elementi contrari
Empoli have conceded ten and Cesena nine in five, making defensive lapses material.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Both defensive concession profiles permit a couple of scoring opportunities without assuming overperformance.
Elementi contrari
Inaccessible calibrated recent xG prevents assigning narrow scoreline probabilities.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Empoli conceded four to Palermo earlier this month, indicating tail vulnerability.
Elementi contrari
There is no defensible model to treat another high total as the central outcome.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol per tempo | Osservato in F2 | Over 1.5 reti primo tempo | 1 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Punti ancora incerti
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- {"path":"teams.home.windows.venue.metrics.xga","reason":"The accessible same-model xG set has 6 games, excluding 17-24 October fixtures; complete venue window is not observed."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"The accessible same-model xG set has 6 games, excluding 17-24 October fixtures; complete last5 window is not observed."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"The accessible same-model xG set has 6 games, excluding 17-24 October fixtures; complete last5 window is not observed."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"The accessible same-model xG set has 6 games, excluding 17-24 October fixtures; complete last3 window is not observed."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"The accessible same-model xG set has 6 games, excluding 17-24 October fixtures; complete last3 window is not observed."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"The accessible same-model xG set has 6 games, excluding 17-24 October fixtures; complete season window is not observed."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"The accessible same-model xG set has 6 games, excluding 17-24 October fixtures; complete season window is not observed."}
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Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Cesena eight matchlogs shots for and against to Oct24 2026-10-27 06:39
- Cesena six earlier SOT matchlogs and match-centre Oct18/24 2026-10-27 06:39
- Cesena eight match logs corner for/against through Oct24 2026-10-27 06:39
- Empoli eight Serie B matchlogs for and against to Oct23 2026-10-27 06:39
- Empoli SOT logs combined with latest match-centre observations 2026-10-27 06:39
- Empoli eight corner match logs to Oct23 2026-10-27 06:39
- Cesena single model only six games, not through Oct24, XG limited 2026-10-27 06:39
- Empoli single model only six games, not through Oct23, xG limited 2026-10-27 06:39
- Cesena site currently six matches and xG dash; cannot infer season8 xG 2026-10-27 06:39
- Oct26 lineups, named 22, managers, suspended Fiori Curto 2026-10-27 06:39
- Official competition schedule for 27 October 20:00 2026-10-27 06:39
- Player shots per90 Cesena up to seven league appearances 2026-10-27 06:39
- Player shots per90 Empoli up to eight league appearances 2026-10-27 06:39
- Independent last-five form and fixture confirmation 2026-10-27 06:39