Benevento–Catanzaro
Stato della revisione
La precedente proposta è stata ritirata nel riesame dei mercati. La gara era già iniziata quando è partito il test.
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Prima gara del nuovo tecnico ospite: possibile risposta di contenimento.. Controtesi: Benevento 11 GF, 83 tiri e 31 SOT/5; Catanzaro 13 GS/5. Il totale casa isola l'asimmetria tecnica senza richiedere un gol ospite.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Benevento
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Benevento 11:3 goals over last five, 83 shots for and 53 allowed, with wide shot volume, though xG full-model proof remains incomplete.
Qualità avversari considerati
Last five include Verona, Carrarese, Cesena, Vicenza and Arezzo; not all equal resistance
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 11 | 3 | n.d. | n.d. | 83 | 53 | 31 | 13 | 20 | 32 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 7 | 2 | n.d. | n.d. | 54 | 29 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 12 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 13 | 7 | n.d. | n.d. | 127 | 87 | 39 | 23 | 44 | 45 |
| Casa / trasferta (5 gare) | 9 | 6 | 8 | 5,1 | 89 | 56 | 29 | 12 | 29 | 23 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Trasferta | 3 | 0 |
| 17/10/2026 | Vicenza Virtus | Casa | 2 | 2 |
| 10/10/2026 | Cesena FC | Casa | 2 | 0 |
| 19/09/2026 | Carrarese Calcio | Trasferta | 1 | 0 |
| 11/09/2026 | Hellas Verona | Casa | 3 | 1 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Trasferta | 3 | 0 |
| 17/10/2026 | Vicenza Virtus | Casa | 2 | 2 |
| 10/10/2026 | Cesena FC | Casa | 2 | 0 |
Catanzaro
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Catanzaro 6:13 goals in last five and 94 shots faced, but created 17 shots and eight SOT while losing to Ascoli.
Qualità avversari considerati
Last five include Carrarese, Sampdoria, Mantova, Verona, Ascoli. Conceding 6 to Ascoli is unusually extreme and should not be extrapolated as expected goals.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 6 | 13 | n.d. | n.d. | 68 | 94 | 19 | 31 | 17 | 36 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 4 | 11 | n.d. | n.d. | 38 | 66 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 27 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 9 | 20 | n.d. | n.d. | 107 | 145 | 34 | 53 | 36 | 55 |
| Casa / trasferta (5 gare) | 6 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 56 | 93 | 20 | 34 | 24 | 35 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Ascoli Calcio | Casa | 1 | 6 |
| 16/10/2026 | Hellas Verona | Trasferta | 2 | 2 |
| 11/10/2026 | Mantova 1911 | Casa | 1 | 3 |
| 19/09/2026 | UC Sampdoria | Trasferta | 1 | 2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Carrarese Calcio | Casa | 1 | 0 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Ascoli Calcio | Casa | 1 | 6 |
| 16/10/2026 | Hellas Verona | Trasferta | 2 | 2 |
| 11/10/2026 | Mantova 1911 | Casa | 1 | 3 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Benevento
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vannucchi | GK | Gianmarco Vannucchi is an eight-game regular and directs the first build under opposition pressure. |
| 2 | Sernicola | RB | Leonardo Sernicola replaces injured Pierozzi on the right, but must protect central counter runs. |
| 3 | Scognamillo | RCB | Stefano Scognamillo is eight-match defensive reference, expected to defend Iemmello runs. |
| 4 | Dalle Mura | LCB | Christian Dalle Mura contests a start with Saio and must cover Salvemini support lanes. |
| 5 | Beruatto | LB | Pietro Beruatto supports Okereke from left-back, balancing Candela advancement. |
| 6 | Siatounis | CM | Antonis Siatounis arrives from central midfield with space near the opposition six. |
| 7 | Maita | DM | Mattia Maita uses three league assists and screens Pafundi between the lines. |
| 8 | Kouan | CM | Christian Kouan advances centrally and contests second balls around midfield. |
| 9 | Lamesta | RW | Davide Lamesta attacks from right flank, FBref 2.38 shots per ninety in Serie B. |
| 10 | Salvemini | CF | Francesco Salvemini occupies central defenders, 2.20 shots per ninety through eight games. |
| 11 | Okereke | LW | David Okereke attacks Candela from Benevento left, with 3.62 shots per ninety. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Pierozzi injury
- Sylla injury
- Logan not called
Probabile formazione e reparto · Catanzaro
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pigliacelli | GK | Mirko Pigliacelli has eight starts, entrusted with organising a new defensive coach shape. |
| 2 | Ruggero | RCB | Marco Ruggero is right centre-back offering cover when Candela advances. |
| 3 | Antonini | CB | Matias Antonini stays central against Salvemini running through defensive half spaces. |
| 4 | Imperiale | LCB | Marco Imperiale covers the left flank behind Dorval when Lamesta carries inside. |
| 5 | Candela | RWB | Antonio Candela has attacking wing-back support but must recover against Okereke. |
| 6 | Tchaouna | CM | Franky Tchaouna has returned to the squad and faces uncertain tactical deployment. |
| 7 | Petriccione | DM | Jacopo Petriccione protects the central lane against Maita passing and Kouan runs. |
| 8 | Dorval | LWB | Mehdi Dorval is left wing-back facing Lamesta's high-volume touches and dribbles. |
| 9 | Pafundi | AM | Simone Pafundi creates between lines but Mignani's first XI is uncertain. |
| 10 | Koffi | CF | N'Dri Koffi can attack wide of Iemmello yet competes for a start with Alesi. |
| 11 | Iemmello | CF | Pietro Iemmello has twenty shots and 2.75 attempts per ninety in eight league matches. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Pecorino injury
- Giovane injury
Profili individuali: numeri e ruolo nell’incontro
Dati calcistici per spiegare le dinamiche; nessuna giocata sui calciatori.
| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamesta | Benevento | Tiri / 90 2,38 (8 gare, per90) | Player B9 has 2.38 measured attempts per ninety in Serie B; this is individual shot activity with a 8-game season sample and a role-relevant attack or defensive transition, not a head-to-head success probability. |
| Salvemini | Benevento | Tiri / 90 2,2 (8 gare, per90) | Player B10 has 2.2 measured attempts per ninety in Serie B; this is individual shot activity with a 8-game season sample and a role-relevant attack or defensive transition, not a head-to-head success probability. |
| Okereke | Benevento | Tiri / 90 3,62 (8 gare, per90) | Player B11 has 3.62 measured attempts per ninety in Serie B; this is individual shot activity with a 8-game season sample and a role-relevant attack or defensive transition, not a head-to-head success probability. |
| Dorval | Catanzaro | Tiri / 90 1,38 (6 gare, per90) | Player C8 has 1.38 measured attempts per ninety in Serie B; this is individual shot activity with a 6-game season sample and a role-relevant attack or defensive transition, not a head-to-head success probability. |
| Candela | Catanzaro | Tiri / 90 0,68 (7 gare, per90) | Player C5 has 0.68 measured attempts per ninety in Serie B; this is individual shot activity with a 7-game season sample and a role-relevant attack or defensive transition, not a head-to-head success probability. |
| Antonini | Catanzaro | Tiri / 90 0,92 (8 gare, per90) | Player C3 has 0.92 measured attempts per ninety in Serie B; this is individual shot activity with a 8-game season sample and a role-relevant attack or defensive transition, not a head-to-head success probability. |
| Iemmello | Catanzaro | Tiri / 90 2,75 (8 gare, per90) | Player C11 has 2.75 measured attempts per ninety in Serie B; this is individual shot activity with a 8-game season sample and a role-relevant attack or defensive transition, not a head-to-head success probability. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Lamesta ↔ Dorval
Meccanismo
Lamesta right-wing advances directly at Dorval's left-side retreating position.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Independent observed 2.38 and 1.38 shots per ninety; these are not measured duel-win or tackle rates.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamesta | shots_p90 | 2,38 per90 | 8 gare |
| Dorval | shots_p90 | 1,38 per90 | 6 gare |
2. Okereke ↔ Candela
Meccanismo
Okereke left-channel pressure meets Candela right-sided forward and recovery runs.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Independent observed 3.62 and 0.68 shots per ninety; these are not measured duel-win or tackle rates.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Okereke | shots_p90 | 3,62 per90 | 8 gare |
| Candela | shots_p90 | 0,68 per90 | 7 gare |
3. Salvemini ↔ Antonini
Meccanismo
Salvemini central striker meets Antonini between box lines and aerial second balls.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Independent observed 2.2 and 0.92 shots per ninety; these are not measured duel-win or tackle rates.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salvemini | shots_p90 | 2,2 per90 | 8 gare |
| Antonini | shots_p90 | 0,92 per90 | 8 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Benevento 11 goals for and three against over five, versus Catanzaro six and thirteen; the new away coach may change defensive spacing.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Incompatible full xG samples and a sudden coaching change prevent overconfident goal expectations.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
Benevento with a lead can use direct wing transitions behind Catanzaro advanced wide positions.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Mignani may hold a back five and make the preferred channels more congested.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
Benevento chasing may move both fullbacks up to feed Salvemini in the centre.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Catanzaro's deeper defence can prevent shot volume turning into high-quality chances.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
After conceding six at Ascoli, Catanzaro may start more compactly and aim to frustrate passing.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Home side has generated eighty-three attempts across last five and can still force early chances.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Home 83 recent shots against away 94 conceded show strong entry volume and repeated scoring chances.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
An extreme six-goal defeat is one event, and a calmer first match under Mignani may suppress the tails.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Despite an Ascoli collapse the visitors had seventeen attempts and eight on target and are not inherently attackless.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Relying on finishing streaks or mixing xG models is unreliable for selecting a wager.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Catanzaro's poor defensive volume raises exposure to multiple home entries.
Elementi contrari
A defensive reset could markedly reduce open transitions and totals.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
A cautious new away manager could make low-event starts possible.
Elementi contrari
Benevento scored in seven of eight and the away side has conceded in seven of eight.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Season goals and chance volume support plausible mid-range scoring outcomes.
Elementi contrari
Incomplete homogeneous expected goals prevent precise probability estimates.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Recent heavy six-goal loss shows possibility of a disastrous defensive tail.
Elementi contrari
The extreme 1-6 cannot reasonably be extrapolated as an everyday output.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol per tempo | Osservato in F2 | Over 1.5 reti primo tempo | 1 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Sintesi tecnica F2 originale
Benevento 11-3 goals last five, 83 shots for 53 against; Catanzaro 6-13 goals last five, 68 for 94 against. First game under Mignani after 1-6 loss and home early shot volume.
Punti ancora incerti
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Across last5 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Across last5 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Across last3 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Across last3 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Across season there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Across season there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Across last5 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Across last5 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Across last3 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Across last3 there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Across season there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Across season there is no homogeneous full-match xG model; the Oct24 source differs from Xpect older game logs."}
Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Official ninth round time and Catanzaro 1-6 Ascoli score 2026-10-27 05:39
- Official kick-off and referee Alberto Poli 2026-10-27 05:39
- Benevento 24 called; Pierozzi and Sylla injured; Talia and Schimmenti recalled 2026-10-27 05:39
- Catanzaro Mignani squad list; Pecorino and Giovane unavailable; Pogacar/Tchaouna/Loubao return 2026-10-27 05:39
- Projected formations from 26 Oct football reporter; not official 2026-10-27 05:39
- Historic first-seven Serie B xG/shots/corner splits; not updated for 24 October away Arezzo 2026-10-27 05:39
- Historic first-seven Serie B xG/shots/corner splits; not updated for 24 October Ascoli 2026-10-27 05:39
- Arezzo 0-3 Benevento latest, 18 shots and 6 on target, 7 corners 2026-10-27 05:39
- Catanzaro 1-6 Ascoli on 24 October 2026-10-27 05:39
- Pre-24-Oct Benevento corner logs seven fixtures 2026-10-27 05:39
- Pre-24-Oct Catanzaro corner logs seven fixtures 2026-10-27 05:39
- Actual 24 Oct Arezzo 0-3 Benevento game xG 0.31 to 2.38, shots 6-18, SOT 3-6, corners 3-7 from OddAlerts provider 2026-10-27 05:39
- Actual Catanzaro 1-6 Ascoli game log; 17 vs 24 shots, 8 vs 10 on target, 5 vs 9 corners, FootInsights model xG 1.86 vs 3.93 2026-10-27 05:39
- Independent Catanzaro 1-6 Ascoli xG model 1.78 vs 3.80 differs from FootInsights; do not mix the two xG models or claim precision beyond source. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39
- Cross-checked match-by-match player or team performance statistics for Serie B 2026/27 and named squads. 2026-10-27 05:39