Ascoli–Sampdoria
Motivazione della nuova proposta
Ascoli ha realizzato 10 reti in cinque gare, Sampdoria ne ha subite 10; la combinazione copre anche l'1-1 ma il 6-1 Ascoli è un'anomalia.
Altre opzioni valutate
Over 2,5 gol · Ascoli almeno 1 gol
Controtesi del dossier calcistico originale
Rischio: Sei dei dieci gol Ascoli sono concentrati in un unico 6-1; possibile avvio lento.. Controtesi: Ascoli 77 tiri/5, 10 GF/5 e Sampdoria 10 GS/5; il primo gol non richiede la produzione di almeno due reti.
Lo studio statistico e il censimento dei mercati sottostanti sono conservati integralmente. Il confronto prezzi originale non certifica la nuova selezione.
Le tabelle conservano le finestre e i dati originali, senza ricondurre tutto a una media artificiale.
Ascoli
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Ascoli have scored 10 and conceded four in last five; the 6-1 at Catanzaro created a sudden spike after four goals in the prior four games. Defensive structure conceded only six through eight matches.
Qualità avversari considerati
Last five include Catanzaro (1-6 surprise), Empoli, Südtirol, Avellino, Padova, uneven difficulty; no extrapolating the 6-goal outlier.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 10 | 4 | n.d. | n.d. | 77 | 72 | 25 | 22 | 33 | 20 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 7 | 2 | n.d. | n.d. | 42 | 49 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 17 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 14 | 6 | n.d. | n.d. | 119 | 118 | 38 | 33 | 55 | 39 |
| Casa / trasferta (4 gare) | 6 | 3 | 6,72 | 3,56 | 56 | 50 | 18 | 10 | 29 | 22 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Catanzaro Calcio | Trasferta | 6 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Empoli FC | Casa | 1 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | FC Südtirol | Trasferta | 0 | 0 |
| 19/09/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Casa | 3 | 1 |
| 12/09/2026 | Padova Calcio | Trasferta | 0 | 1 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | Catanzaro Calcio | Trasferta | 6 | 1 |
| 17/10/2026 | Empoli FC | Casa | 1 | 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | FC Südtirol | Trasferta | 0 | 0 |
Sampdoria
Valutazione tecnica della squadra
Sampdoria's 5:10 in last five conceals 75 shots attempted and 19 on goal; under D'Angelo defensive positions and striker rotation may change output.
Qualità avversari considerati
Last five include Südtirol, Arezzo, Avellino, Catanzaro and Mantova. Four away matches preceded the manager change and offensive volume exceeded outcomes.
| Periodo | Gol fatti | Gol subiti | xG | xGA | Tiri fatti | Tiri concessi | Tiri in porta | Tiri in porta concessi | Corner fatti | Corner concessi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultime cinque (5 gare) | 5 | 10 | n.d. | n.d. | 75 | 54 | 19 | 17 | 30 | 16 |
| Ultime tre (3 gare) | 3 | 7 | n.d. | n.d. | 45 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 21 | 6 |
| Stagione (8 gare) | 8 | 16 | n.d. | n.d. | 127 | 92 | 39 | 30 | 49 | 25 |
| Casa / trasferta (5 gare) | 4 | 11 | 5,65 | 8,4 | 71 | 51 | 22 | 19 | 33 | 9 |
Tutti i valori sopra sono totali del rispettivo campione; xG e xGA non omogenei o non presenti sono segnalati come n.d., non convertiti in zero.
Ultime cinque · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | FC Südtirol | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 18/10/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Casa | 1 | 2 |
| 09/10/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Trasferta | 1 | 4 |
| 19/09/2026 | Catanzaro Calcio | Casa | 2 | 1 |
| 13/09/2026 | Mantova 1911 | Trasferta | 0 | 2 |
Ultime tre · sequenza dei risultati
| Data | Avversario | Campo | GF | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2026 | FC Südtirol | Trasferta | 1 | 1 |
| 18/10/2026 | Arezzo Calcio | Casa | 1 | 2 |
| 09/10/2026 | US Avellino 1912 | Trasferta | 1 | 4 |
Probabile formazione e reparto · Ascoli
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samuele Vitale | GK | Keeper behind a defence with six goals allowed through eight, directs distribution into half spaces. |
| 2 | Abdoul Guiebre | LB | Mobile wide defensive outlet, contests Begic acceleration and can overlap to advance possession. |
| 3 | Nicholas Rizzo | LCB | Holds deep line to contain Lauritsen while covering the full-back in transition. |
| 4 | Marcos Curado | RCB | Experienced centre-half organising aerial clearances against the visiting centre-forward. |
| 5 | Andrea Oliveri | RB | Covers the Ascoli right side when Verschaeren and Cicconi attack the half-channel. |
| 6 | Samuele Damiani | DM | Central pivot dictates build-out under Sampdoria pressure and screens Henderson progression. |
| 7 | Giovanni Corradini | CM | Provides ball recoveries, late support and protects advancing wide defenders. |
| 8 | Simone D'Uffizi | LW | Attacks the Di Pardo channel, can exchange positions in the creative line, 1.50 shots per90. |
| 9 | Gennaro Acampora | AM | Central creative outlet between the lines, confronts Abildgaard's anchoring. |
| 10 | Andrea Silipo | RW | Inside-moving right winger has 2.58 shots per90 before the 24 Oct outlier, and presses Cicconi. |
| 11 | Matteo Brunori | CF | Central forward with 3.42 shots per90 in limited previous Serie B minutes, competes with Gori. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Manuel Alagna, unavailable
Probabile formazione e reparto · Sampdoria
Formazione probabile registrata, non ufficiale: sono mantenuti ruolo, note tecniche e ballottaggi.
| N. | Calciatore | Ruolo | Annotazione tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Vindahl Jensen | GK | Visiting goalkeeper faces high-variate Ascoli chance creation after the Catanzaro 1-6. |
| 2 | Alessandro Di Pardo | RB | Right full-back is isolated against D'Uffizi cuts and tracks overlapping Guiebre. |
| 3 | Stefan Gartenmann | RCB | Centre-back returned to call-ups despite separate training and may not reach full match condition. |
| 4 | Filippo Delli Carri | LCB | Left central defender covers Silipo diagonals when Cicconi attacks ahead. |
| 5 | Manuel Cicconi | LB | Left-back supports Begic attacks but must recover against Silipo's inside carries. |
| 6 | Liam Henderson | CM | High shooter through limited early season sample, 3.67 shots per90 in three-game FBref capture. |
| 7 | Antoine Makoumbou | DM | Deep midfielder guards access to Acampora between the lines and supports ball circulation. |
| 8 | Oliver Abildgaard | CM | Box-to-box midfielder may challenge the Ascoli defensive screen and second-ball pressure. |
| 9 | Yari Verschaeren | AM | Attacking midfielder scored the go-ahead goal against Südtirol and receives between fullbacks. |
| 10 | Tjas Begic | RW | Winger supplies Lauritsen and attacks Guiebre's channel from visiting right. |
| 11 | Tobias Lauritsen | CF | Centre forward expected to stretch Ascoli central pair, but minutes and partner vary under new coach. |
Assenze, squalifiche e incertezze
- Fabio Depaoli (shoulder)
- Salvatore Esposito
- Lorenzo Insigne
- Luca Ravanelli
- Mattia Viti
- Danel Sinani
- Nikola Sekulov
- Andrea Conti
- Bjorn Meijer
Profili individuali: numeri e ruolo nell’incontro
Dati calcistici per spiegare le dinamiche; nessuna giocata sui calciatori.
| Calciatore | Squadra | Indicatore / campione | Lettura tecnico-tattica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoul Guiebre | Ascoli | Tiri / 90 1,43 (7 gare, per90) | Guiebre produces 1.43 attempts per ninety from left back and contests Begic flank while covering advancing attackers. |
| Simone D'Uffizi | Ascoli | Tiri / 90 1,5 (7 gare, per90) | D'Uffizi has 1.50 attempts per ninety and receives against Di Pardo in home attacking channels. |
| Andrea Silipo | Ascoli | Tiri / 90 2,58 (7 gare, per90) | Silipo shoots 2.58 times per ninety in 453 league minutes before latest fixture; right-side rotation is crucial. |
| Matteo Brunori | Ascoli | Tiri / 90 3,42 (6 gare, per90) | Brunori's 3.42 shots per ninety come from only 263 minutes, so it is a short-sample forward statistic. |
| Alessandro Di Pardo | Sampdoria | Tiri / 90 0,67 (3 gare, per90) | Di Pardo 0.67 shots per ninety in indexed three-league-game FBref baseline, not a proxy for tackles. |
| Stefan Gartenmann | Sampdoria | Tiri / 90 0,67 (3 gare, per90) | Gartenmann 0.67 shots per ninety in three games, but fitness and defensive duels require separate verification. |
| Manuel Cicconi | Sampdoria | Tiri / 90 0,33 (3 gare, per90) | Cicconi 0.33 shots per ninety through initial three games; his opponent Silipo creates inside-shooting threats. |
| Liam Henderson | Sampdoria | Tiri / 90 3,67 (3 gare, per90) | Henderson shoots 3.67 times per ninety through initial three matches only, not a stable eight-round season rate. |
Duelli: meccanismo, dati e controprove
1. Andrea Silipo ↔ Manuel Cicconi
Meccanismo
Silipo cuts in from Ascoli right towards Cicconi left-back, forcing containment against a mobile shooter.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Observed nonhead-to-head player shots/90 2.58 vs 0.33; visiting defender attack-rate is not a defensive tackle rate.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Silipo | shots_p90 | 2,58 per90 | 7 gare |
| Manuel Cicconi | shots_p90 | 0,33 per90 | 3 gare |
2. Simone D'Uffizi ↔ Alessandro Di Pardo
Meccanismo
D'Uffizi draws Di Pardo into wide-to-inside coverage and can receive Acampora through-balls.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Observed nonhead-to-head player shots/90 1.5 vs 0.67; visiting defender attack-rate is not a defensive tackle rate.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simone D'Uffizi | shots_p90 | 1,5 per90 | 7 gare |
| Alessandro Di Pardo | shots_p90 | 0,67 per90 | 3 gare |
3. Matteo Brunori ↔ Stefan Gartenmann
Meccanismo
Brunori central forward goes against Gartenmann physical marking if the latter is fit and selected.
Dati di riferimento e limiti
Observed nonhead-to-head player shots/90 3.42 vs 0.67; visiting defender attack-rate is not a defensive tackle rate.
| Profilo | Indicatore | Valore | Campione |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Brunori | shots_p90 | 3,42 per90 | 6 gare |
| Stefan Gartenmann | shots_p90 | 0,67 per90 | 3 gare |
Scenari di gara e stress test
Scenario di partenza
Sviluppo possibile
Ascoli disciplined midblock meets Sampdoria output from wing and midfield, with visitors needing better chance conversion.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Ascoli's six-goal win over Catanzaro is a single low-frequency result, not six projected goals.
Se passa avanti la squadra di casa
Sviluppo possibile
Ascoli can hold the central pair and break behind Di Pardo when Sampdoria is chasing.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
D'Angelo may add Tutino or reshape the front line, increasing cross pressure.
Se passa avanti la squadra ospite
Sviluppo possibile
Ascoli use Guiebre and Oliveri overlaps to draw visitors wide and attack central cut-backs.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Sampdoria can reduce space with deep coverage and limit conversion from sterile shot volume.
Pareggio prolungato
Sviluppo possibile
A disciplined home defensive block and Sampdoria low scoring efficiency permit a long first-half draw.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Ascoli six at Catanzaro show transition ceiling if visitors commit errors.
Partita ad alto punteggio
Sviluppo possibile
Sampdoria has conceded ten goals in last five but attempted seventy-five shots, allowing high transitional tempo.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
Ascoli has allowed only six goals in eight games and the away manager can prioritise structure.
Controtesi e segnali di rischio
Sviluppo possibile
Ascoli are favoured by points and goal difference but the away team's 15.9 season shots per game reveal meaningful attacking potential.
Obiezione e condizione contraria
The visitor's very weak away goals and multiple absentees still limit confidence that high shot count creates efficient chances.
Fasce di gol: condizioni e falsificazione
4 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Visitors concede twice per game on season averages; a home lead can open counterattacks.
Elementi contrari
Away shot volumes and Ascoli resilient defence can suppress extreme outcomes.
0-1 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Ascoli defensive record six conceded in eight makes an organised low-event contest feasible.
Elementi contrari
Sampdoria has scored in seven of eight and Ascoli just generated 24 attempts in a single match.
2-3 gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
Two moderately shot-active clubs with contrasting efficiencies can resolve near three goals.
Elementi contrari
Unknown starting forwards and incomplete homogeneous xG prevents precise calibration.
5+ gol totali
Elementi favorevoli
The previous Ascoli 6-goal match shows an extreme finishing tail exists in a broken game state.
Elementi contrari
Six goals came after four total in the previous four Ascoli matches: strong recency-bias risk.
Mercati esplorati: scelta e verifiche
Le famiglie sotto provengono dal confronto prepartita dei mercati, non sono quote aggiornate o una certificazione di convenienza. Le righe senza evidenza restano non disponibili. Corner e linee dei giocatori sono esclusi dalle giocate.
| Famiglia | Riscontro nella ricognizione | Selezioni esaminate | Osservazioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gol totali | Osservato in F2 | Over 2.5 reti | 2 |
| Entrambe a segno | Osservato in F2 | Entrambe le squadre segnano - Sì | 2 |
| Gol per tempo | Osservato in F2 | Over 1.5 reti primo tempo | 1 |
| Gol squadra | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Multigol | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
| Combinazioni | Nessun prezzo univoco | Linea non documentata | 1 |
Punti ancora incerti
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- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Full last3 exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Full last3 exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Full season exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.home.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Full season exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xg","reason":"Full last5 exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last5.metrics.xga","reason":"Full last5 exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xg","reason":"Full last3 exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.last3.metrics.xga","reason":"Full last3 exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xg","reason":"Full season exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
- {"path":"teams.away.windows.season.metrics.xga","reason":"Full season exact xG is mixed between seven older Xpect event reports and an Oct 24 provider with different definitions; cannot sum into a calibrated single model."}
Le formazioni erano probabili al momento della raccolta e possono variare prima della gara.
Fonti e riscontri
Fonti consultate al momento dello studio: gli aggiornamenti successivi richiedono nuova verifica.
- Reconciled 8 league games form and home/away splits for both teams. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Eight-match league shots and per-venue expected goal metrics; independent fixture and lineup audit. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Probable formations of both teams, injuries and confirmed D'Angelo 21-person call list 27 Oct. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Seven-match pre-24-Oct Ascoli match xG values; not the same model as 24 Oct. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Seven-match pre-24-Oct Sampdoria xG; stale for eighth round. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Ascoli 6-1 at Catanzaro, 24 shots, ten on target, xG 3.93 in FootInsights event model. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Südtirol-Sampdoria 1-1, 11 shots and three on target for Sampdoria. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Sampdoria last match xG 0.71 and Südt 1.77 in another provider model. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Ascoli league 7-match shot log and 24 Oct separately reconciled. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Sampdoria league shot logs before 24 Oct. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Ascoli SOT match log 7 matches plus actual Oct24 10 for and eight against. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Sampdoria SOT match log 7 matches plus 24 Oct match centre 3:2. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Ascoli corner match logs including 24 Oct, eight games. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Sampdoria corners for and against eight matchlogs. 2026-10-27 05:55
- FBref indexed Serie B player Sh/90 exact Silipo 2.58, D'Uffizi 1.50, Brunori 3.42, Guiebre 1.43 over seven games. 2026-10-27 05:55
- FBref indexed player Sh/90 Di Pardo 0.67, Gartenmann 0.67, Henderson 3.67 from three games; time limited, cannot extrapolate to eight. 2026-10-27 05:55
- Serie B ninth round Ascoli-Sampdoria Oct27 20:00 local kickoff. 2026-10-27 05:55