Bournemouth–Milan

CONTEXT: LEAGUE PHASE, CALENDAR, H2H

Bournemouth UEL: away Real Sociedad 2-1, home Sturm Graz 3-0 => 6 points GF5 GA1. Milan UEL: home Benfica 0-2, away Salzburg 4-0 => 3pts GF4 GA2. The 4-0 Salzburg and Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm were 15 Oct and not part of domestic last5.

No previous meetings of Bournemouth–Milan, UEFA fixture ; current head-to-head no match with these rosters. Bournemouth in first European season and strong domestic EPL competition; Milan European history but new 4-back/rotation strategy.

RECENT FORM, ONLY DOMESTIC LEAGUE, OLDEST→NEWEST, SAME StatMuse MODEL

Bournemouth EPL:

05/09 Newcastle away 2-2 | xG1.38 xGA0.70 shots17 SOT5 | corner3-4 (own/against).

12/09 Brentford home 2-2 | xG2.20 xGA0.50 shots20 SOT10 | corner2-1.

20/09 Liverpool home 0-1 | xG0.80 xGA1.65 shots9 SOT2 | corner3-3.

10/10 Chelsea away 1-5 | xG1.39 xGA1.10 shots9 SOT4 | corner7-1. (Fixture listing on Statz displays reversed order on away, StatMuse confirms AWAY LOSS 1–5).

18/10 Sunderland home 2-0 | xG4.32 xGA0.08 shots29 SOT6 | corner5-3. Red card Sunderland at 17min material CONFOUND of high xG 4.32, not sustainable baseline.

Last5 W1 D2 L2 GF7 GA10 xG10.09/5=2.018 xGA4.03/5=.806 shots84/5=16.80 SOT27/5=5.40 corners FOR20/5=4.00 AGAINST12/5=2.40.

Last3 (Liverpool Chelsea Sunderland) W1 D0 L2 GF3 GA6 xG(0.8+1.39+4.32)/3=2.17 xGA(1.65+1.10+.08)/3=.94 shots47/3=15.67 SOT12/3=4, corners15/3=5 FOR, 7/3=2.33 against.

Quality of opposition: Liverpool and Chelsea far higher pressure than Sunderland with early red, Newcastle/Brentford varied.

AC Milan Serie A:

06/09 Juventus away 1-1 | xG .10 xGA 1.63 shots3 SOT1 corner1-7.

12/09 Lazio away 2-2 | xG1.25 xGA2.02 shots16 SOT7 corner5-2.

20/09 Lecce home3-0 | xG2.21 xGA .21 shots10 SOT4 corner2-3.

11/10 Sassuolo away1-1 | xG1.19 xGA1.21 shots11 SOT6 corner5-3.

18/10 Atalanta home3-2 | xG2.48 xGA1.64 shots11 SOT6 corner2-2.

Last5 W2 D3 L0 GF10 GA6 xG7.23/5=1.446 xGA6.71/5=1.342 shots51/5=10.2 SOT24/5=4.8, corners FOR15/5=3.0 conceded17/5=3.4.

Last3 (Lecce,Sassuolo,Atalanta) W2D1L0 GF7GA3, xG5.88/3=1.96, xGA3.06/3=1.02, shots32/3=10.67, SOT16/3=5.33, corners9/3=3 FOR,8/3=2.67 AGAINST.

Atalanta xG appears 2.48 in same series but 2.65 on differently cached alternate StatMuse page (data revision), use single internal match-log version all games consistently and record conflict instead of silent replacement.

Actual TOTAL goals frequency last5: Bournemouth 0–1=1,2–3=1,4+=3,5+=1; Milan 0–1=0,2–3=3,4+=2,5+=1. Score distribution descriptive only.

NATIONAL SEASON AND HOME/AWAY, SAMPLE n

Bournemouth EPL seven matches W1 D3 L3 GF9 GA13. StatMuse match logs reconcile xG season roughly 12.93/7=1.85, xGA8.01/7=1.14, 106 shots/7=15.14, 36 SOT/7=5.14.

Bournemouth HOME n4 W1 D2 L1 GF5 GA4, xG9.51/4=2.3775, xGA (1.73 Everton + .50 Brentford +1.65 Liverpool+.08 Sunderland)=3.96/4=.99, shots75/4=18.75, SOT23/4=5.75, corners for (Everton10+Brentford2+Liverpool3+Sunderland5)/4=5, against (7+1+3+3)/4=3.5. HOME latest3 (Brentford Liverpool Sunderland) W1D1L1 GF4GA3, xG7.32/3=2.44 but distorted by Sunderland4.32; home excluding this match xG(2.19+2.20+.80)/3=1.73. Crucial caveat.

Milan Serie A n7 W4 D3 L0 GF14 GA7, xG10.96/7=1.566, xGA8.56/7=1.223, shots86/7=12.29 SOT33/7=4.71. [A different cached 7-game StatMuse page reads 11.13 and8.67; model snapshot discrepancy small; never mix with exact 10.96/8.56 total series].

Milan AWAY n4 W1 D3 L0 GF6 GA5, xG4.14/4=1.035, xGA5.88/4=1.47, shots49/4=12.25, SOT18/4=4.5; corner for (Torino4+Juve1+Lazio5+Sassuolo5)/4=3.75, corner against (Torino2+Juve7+Lazio2+Sassuolo3)/4=3.5. Milan away SCORED 4/4 league, conceded 4/4, BTTS 4/4. No repeated 4-game occurrence equated to P(goal yes).

Competition separation: UEFA Milan vs Benfica 0-2, Salzburg0-4 score listed from Milan perspective W4-0; Bournemouth Sociedad W2-1, Sturm W3-0. Competition not silently merged into league baselines.

Sources:

(different model xGhome2.26 xGA1.02, DO NOT merge with StatMuse)

Corner domestic season ONLY: Bournemouth PL n7 FOR4.71 AGAINST3.86, Milan SerieA n7 FOR3.00 AGAINST3.14. Source Statz. Source's FIRST big overview n10 BOU 5.3 FOR 4 AGAINST and MILAN n10 3.8 FOR 3.1 AGAINST mix cups, never label league. No corner betting.

XI probable and fitness 21/22 OCT

Direct manager source Milan Marco Amorim 21 Oct: -> Cissé WILL PLAY, POSITION NOT CERTAIN; Ramos muscular overload out, Chukwueze injury out; rotations. Saelemaekers + Gabbia out, Terracciano suspended. Sky 21 Oct with 4-4-1-1 Milan: Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlović, Estupiñán; Diego Moreira, Musah, Jashari, Loftus-Cheek; Hutchinson; Alphadjo Cissé. Alternatives Bartesaghi for Estupiñán, Rabiot or Modrić CM, Pulisic forward winger, 3-4-2-1. Do not confuse another preview InfoBetting which puts Chukwueze in XI despite listing him OUT in the same page; reject that inconsistent projection.

Bournemouth manager Marco Rose possible 4-2-3-1: Petrović; Adam Smith, James Hill (or Bafodé Diakité), António Silva, Adrien Truffert (or Julio Soler); Tyler Adams, Lewis Cook (or Ryan Christie); Rayan, Justin Kluivert, Marcus Tavernier; Evanilson. Alternative Ben Gannon-Doak/Amine Adli, Álvaro Rodríguez forward. OUT Alex Scott, Junior Kroupi, Julián Araujo, latest InfoBetting Oct21 confirms . If Adli/Doak/playmaker instead of Kluivert creates different pressure height.

No official XI pre-kickoff. Market pages still LIST OUT Ramos Chukwueze Kroupi: listing NOT eligibility proof. Exclude their props.

ALL XI INDIVIDUALS WITH ROLE-RELEVANT METRICS

Data basis: Statz mixed ALL first 10 Bournemouth (PL+UEL+Carabao) through Oct18, first9 Milan (SerieA+UEL). Totals/appearances/minutes from tables, not all league and NOT per 90 unless independently converted. Low-min samples caution.

SOURCE Bournemouth

SOURCE Milan

Bournemouth:

1 Petrović GK 9apps/810min; parades/box command and ball distribution. Real saves not enumerated by squad table; don't infer shots stat.

2 Adam Smith RB 9/722, 7 tackles,10 fouls,7 chances created, 3 yellow; experience positioning, protect left Milan side / overlap Tavernier. 0.87 tackles/90 actual small not explosive.

3 James Hill CB 10/838,18 tackles,9 fouls,12 chances created; ball progression and positioning. Alternative Diakité 4/208 tackles1 fouls4, small sample.

4 António Silva CB 10/892,17 tackles,7 fouls,4 yellows and 5 chances, strong tempo and aerial threat; anticipate Cissé.

5 Truffert LB 8/714,25 tackles (3.15 per90),16 fouls (~2.02),3 yellows, 8 chances,1assist; significant defender duel volume vs Moreira, can be caught high. Alternative Soler3/186 tackles6 foul1, smaller sample.

6 Adams CDM9/593,10 tackles15 fouls (2.28/90), shields Hutchinson & Cissé, avoid fouls under pressure.

7 Cook CM9/440,6 tackles5 fouls7 chances; passing/progression & recovery. Alternative Ryan Christie9/404 3 goals,1.0xG, 5 SOT,10 chances, 6 tackles,6 fouls, adds goals but fewer stable minutes.

8 Rayan RW10/720,3g, xG2.2, 12 SOT,8 chances created,8 tackles,4 fouls; direct running at Estupiñán/Pavlović; 12 SOT in720min=1.50/90.

9 Kluivert CAM8/491,2g, xG2.2,8 SOT,5 chances,5 tackles,11 fouls (2.0 per90), receives between Musah and DeWinter; if out Christie alternative.

10 Tavernier LW/CAM10/750,4g, xG2.2,10 SOT,18 chances,13 tackles,8 fouls,3 yellow; main creation+finishing, faces Tomori.

11 Evanilson ST9/736,3g+4a, xG3.3,8SOT,11 chances created,7 tackles,13 fouls; main reference, turn body, linkup and finish. 8 SOT/736min~.98 SOT/90.

Alt Brookes 7/176 7 chances, TAV position; Álvaro Rodríguez7/226,1g xG1.5,2 SOT 3 chances, small minutes. Alex Scott6/537 13 chances, OUT, key missed creative midfielder.

1 Maignan GK9/810, technical sweeping & positioning/long diagonals, age31 Transfermarkt €20m is not reflection of shot-stopping performance.

2 Tomori RB/CB2apps/73min,3 tackles, no stable sample for adapted fullback; pace vs Tavernier, vulnerability of natural attacking movements.

3 De Winter CB9/790,14 tackles,14 fouls (1.59/90 both), 2yellow, physical vs Evanilson and cover Kluivert.

4 Pavlović CB9/801,22 tackles (~2.47/90),8 fouls, 4 yellow, assists1; aggressive stepping forward and card risk vs Evanilson.

5 Estupiñán LB7/342 6 tackles6 fouls2yellow3 chances, recovery against Rayan; alternative Bartesaghi5/272 10 tackles10 chances created1assist, high line capability; different response.

6 Moreira RM6/339,3g1a xG .8, 4SOT,3chances,4 tackles,1foul; young output over finishing xG, defensive obligations vs Truffert.

7 Musah CM8/571,5tackles3chances, carry under Adams press, recovery positioning.

8 Jashari CM7/270,1assist,6 chances, only1 tackle in small minutes; passing/progression, risk in high pressing.

9 Loftus-Cheek LM/CM7/316,8tackles,8chances, xG .8,1 SOT; physical entries box, stamina uncertain, tactical conversion to wide.

10 Hutchinson CAM5/191, 3 SOT, 2 chances,1 assist,5 tackles,1 yellow; sample thin, receives behind Adams.

11 Cissé ST or CAM7/360 5g vs 2.0xG,8 SOT, 2 chances, 3tackles,6fouls, coach confirmed plays, role unknown; great recent finishing but OVERPERFORMANCE, prospect not proven 90-minute consistency.

Alt Milan Ramos9/745, 3g1a, xG5.4,10SOT, OUT muscular issue material to Milan scorer ability; Chukwueze8/614 16 chances,2a, OUT; Saelemaekers5/218,9tackles,6chances OUT; Rabiot9/564,4g+4a,13 chances,12tackles, EXPERIENCE; Modrić8/460 at age41, 8chances,6tackles, pass orientation and game reading despite lower current €; Pulisic6/340 1g1assist5SOT10 chances, usable substitute. Absences + rotations are materially stronger than simple recent clean sheet vs Salzburg.

MARKET VALUE VS TECHNICAL VALUE

TM season2026/27 club page valuations Bournemouth €550.38m, 30 players, Milan €533.00m,31 players: same source/season but snapshots crawled months before fixture; NOT claim current precise synchronized 22Oct.

Age profiles: Maignan 31 strong positioning despite €20m, 41y Modrić control tempo, senior Smith > positioning, inexperienced high-value young Cissé with 5g/2.0xG not assured sustainable. Club total market value BOU slightly higher but Milan higher European experience not dominant in squad capacity; cannot infer match favorite purely on €.

MATCH-UPS 11 v 11 and strategy

1 Tavernier vs adapted Tomori: Bournemouth winger 4g,18 chances/750min, Tomori only 73min role sample; pace matched but positional winger wide potential.

2 Rayan vs Estupiñán/Bartesaghi: Rayan12SOT/720min vs Estupiñán6 tackles/342; LB switch changes risk and progressive overlap.

3 Kluivert vs Musah/Jashari and De Winter: 2g xG2.2 + ball carrying, holding mids can allow behind them, CB stepping leaves run for Evanilson.

4 Evanilson vs De Winter/Pavlović: linkup 4 assists + 3 goals and xG3.3, defenders combined 36 tackles with yellow risk, attacking first post, possible foul distribution.

5 Truffert vs Moreira: Truffert25 tackles/714min 16 fouls, young Moreira3g vs xG.8, wide attack and counter channel.

6 Cissé vs António Silva/Hill: Cissé five actual vs xG2.0 n360min, only confirmed participation not positional, CB A.Silva 17 tackles/892, Hill18/838; conservative attribution of goals.

7 Hutchinson vs Adams: Hutchinson minutes191 & creative, Adams15fouls/593, press and second-ball; if Adams drags, Loftus enters box.

8 Loftus-Cheek vs Smith: physical 8 tackles &8 chance in316min, Smith experience 3YC and 7 chances in722min, different pace game.

9 Milan right flank Moreira–Truffert vs Bournemouth Rayan–Estupiñán both destabilize if wingbacks high.

10 Coaches Rose vs Amorim, Bournemouth quick regain; Milan 4-back adapted and rotated, can counter but may lose midfield. 0-0 long if Bournemouth finishing baseline 1.25 home goals despite huge xG, Milan creative missing Ramos+Chukwueze.

Break ties: Bournemouth takes early lead Milan opens = favorable high total/BTTS, Milan lead Bournemouth attacks but Milan can keep deeper, stalemate game state 1-1 drawn scenario.

SCORES and tail V4

Last5 domestic totals Bournemouth 4+,4+,1,6,2; Milan2,4,3,2,5 => 4+ BOU3/5 MIL2/5, 5+ 1/5 each; 2-3 three Milan, etc. Project 1-1 main, 2-1 Bournemouth alt, 1-2 Milan alt, 2-2 4+ extra; possible 0-1 Milan if Bournemouth cannot convert, with Milan's rotation alternative; no false P(score), score distribution NOT_CALIBRATED.

🚩 Calci d’angolo e palle inattive

I conteggi fatti e concessi, distinti per campione quando disponibili, sono riportati nelle sezioni statistiche delle due squadre. Restano indicatori tecnici di pressione e non una raccomandazione su mercati corner.

🧠 Risultati esatti e scenario da quattro gol

Gli esatti sono proiezioni tattiche, non percentuali calibrate.

📊 Mercati esaminati e valutazione

Il confronto di mercato nel dossier distingue 1X2, gol squadra, totali, entrambe a segno, handicap, mercati dei tempi e individuali soltanto quando correttamente leggibili. Le statistiche sui corner non sono trasformate in giocate.

Entrambe le squadre a segno — Sì · quota 1,62 · voto di fiducia tecnica 6,6/10.

La quota è un riferimento editoriale numerico; il voto deriva dalla valutazione tecnico-calcistica e non equivale a una probabilità di successo.